This too shall pass. That's what I've been telling myself for the last week. After The Six Pack got off to a rough 3-9 start to the season, I vowed that I would bounce back last week. Well, unless you consider a 2-4 week bouncing back, it did not happen. So here we sit, entering Week 4 of the college football season with a 5-13 record.

I've had bad runs in this column before, but this is the worst three-week stretch I can remember. But, as I said, this too shall pass. We will not back down. We will continue to #TrustTheProcess.

Of course, if you want to just fade me, I couldn't blame you.

Games of the Week

No. 3 Georgia (-14) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame: When these two met in South Bend during the 2017 season, it was a fantastic game. Georgia won 20-19, and since then, quite a bit has changed. Georgia was ranked No. 15 at the time of that game but went on to nearly win a national title, losing to Alabama in overtime on the final play of the season. The Irish would rebound to finish 10-3, and then go 12-0 last season, reaching the College Football Playoff themselves. Now both teams are ranked in the top 10, and clearly, the oddsmakers aren't expecting as close of a contest this time around.

I can't blame them. This is not a spot in which Notre Dame has performed well in recent history. Yes, the Irish went 12-0 and reached the CFP last year. Yes, Notre Dame is one of the best programs in the country. It's just, Notre Dame is not at that top tier yet. At least, it hasn't shown that it is. Since 2011, the Irish have played four games against teams ranked in the top 5 at the time. They are 0-4 in those games straight up and 1-3 against the spread. The one time they covered was as a 9.5-point dog against Florida State in 2014. The other three times the Irish lost to No. 4 Stanford (2011), No. 2 Alabama (2012 BCS title game) and No. 2 Clemson (2018 CFP semi). They lost those three games by an average of 23 points while never entering either game as more than a 10.5-point underdog. From what I've seen of these two teams so far in 2019, I'm not ready to choose the Irish to buck that trend this weekend. Georgia 35, Notre Dame 17

No. 11 Michigan at No. 13 Wisconsin (Under 44.5): Two Big Ten programs with something to prove. Last year, Michigan beat Wisconsin 38-13 in Ann Arbor, and it started a run of victories that convinced many of us Michigan had turned the corner. Then the Ohio State game happened and erased all the progress the Wolverines had made. Wisconsin would finish 8-5 last year, failing to win 10 games in a season for the first time since 2013. So which one is ready to make a statement?

I'm not sure. I wrote about why I think this year's Wisconsin team is better-equipped for Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten than last year, but that doesn't mean I'm ready to say it's going to cover this spread. At the same time, it's not easy to trust Michigan in this spot. What I do like is the under, because these are two good defenses, and the current forecast is calling for some windy conditions in Madison on Saturday morning. That affects offenses and special teams, and that usually means fewer points being scored. Michigan 21, Wisconsin 20

Lock of the Week

South Carolina at Missouri (Under 62): The Lock of the Week is off to an 0-3 start, and it's gone 0-3 relying on favorites. Well, not this week. It's time to get back to our roots, and our roots tell us to take the under in this game. I thought the total was too high the moment I saw it. I know South Carolina QB Ryan Hilinski threw for 324 yards against Alabama last week, but nobody wants to mention he had to throw 57 passes (5.7 yards per) to get there. Neither of these offenses has been very impressive against FBS competition, but the defenses have been solid. Mizzou has allowed only 3.61 yards per play, which ranks fourth nationally. That and another forecast calling for strong winds (it's supposed to be quite windy this weekend) has me loving the under, and you should too. Missouri 31, South Carolina 21

Underdog of the Week

Northwestern (+9.5) vs. Michigan State: Those who have followed me for awhile likely expected me to be taking the under in this game, too. After all, it's not often we see totals as low as 38.5 points for games. But that's what they want you to think in this game. These two teams don't play every season, but they have played the last three seasons. In those three games, they've combined for an average of 70.7 points per game, nearly twice this total. Now, I don't expect that to happen again, but you know what else has happened in the last three years? Northwestern has beaten Michigan State. This Northwestern team isn't as good as those teams were, but Michigan State's offense has looked horrible in two of three games. I don't expect a ton of points in this matchup, so if you're going to give me nearly 10 with Northwestern, I have to take it. It's basically the same principle that led to me taking Arizona State +14 in East Lansing last week, and we saw how that worked out. Michigan State 24, Northwestern 16

Circled Wagons of the Week

Syracuse (-5) vs. Western Michigan: I look at Syracuse and see myself. This is a team that began the season ranked in the top 25. It then opened the year with a 22-0 win over Liberty that wasn't all that impressive. It followed that up with a 43-point loss to Maryland, and last week was demolished by Clemson 41-6. A Syracuse offense that managed to score 40.2 points per game last season has managed to score only 50 points in its first three games. Now it's only a 5-point favorite at home against a Western Michigan team that allowed 51 points to Michigan State. Like, Syracuse can't be this bad, can it? Of course it isn't. It's just been the victim of odd circumstance to start the season, and this is the week it puts it all together and gets back on track. Just like me. And on Saturday, we make our stand! Syracuse 38, Western Michigan 17

Bottom 25 Game of the Century of the Week

Bowling Green (+11.5) at Kent State: As the curator of The Bottom 25, I know a lot about these teams, so allow me to let you in on a little secret. They're both quite bad! So when I see matchups between two teams that are not good, and one of them is a double-digit favorite against the other, it raises an eyebrow. When that double-digit favorite is Kent State, it raises two eyebrows. The Flashes are not often favored by 10 points or more. The last time it happened against an FBS team was in 2015 against Miami (OH). If this line stays at 10 or larger, it will only be the sixth time the Flashes have been double-digit favorites since 2010. The previous five instances have all come in conference games, and Kent State has been the home team in all of them. The Flashes have gone 1-4 ATS in these games. They're about to be 1-5. Kent State 31, Bowling Green 27

SportsLine Game of the Week

No. 8 Auburn at No. 17 Texas A&M: It's a big SEC West matchup as Auburn heads west to take on Texas A&M. The Aggies find themselves as 4-point favorites at home against the higher-ranked Tigers, with the total set at 47.5 points. I have a strong play available for this game as well, but to see it, you'll have to head over to SportsLine.

Last Week

Season

Games of the Week

1-1

3-3

Lock of the Week

0-1

0-3

Overall

2-4

5-13

Units

-2.182

-8.455