graphic-clemtt25t.jpg
Getty Images

While there might be some debate for who is the No. 4 team in the country, with an eye on the final College Football Playoff Rankings release on Sunday, there is no doubt about the top two teams in the country after the conference championship games on Saturday. 

Alabama will almost certainly retain its status as the No. 1 team in the country in the AP Top 25 after its SEC Championship Game win against Florida, but whether it is again unanimous among the 62 AP voters will depend on whether or not Clemson was able to change some minds with its thrashing of previously undefeated Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.

The Tigers not only flexed their form with Trevor Lawrence in the lineup against the Fighting Irish but also showed signs of consistency from previous Clemson teams that have played their best football in Charlotte as a tune-up for the playoff. This is a program, after all, that has not only made the CFP in each of the previous five seasons but made the national championship game in four, winning two. 

How far Notre Dame falls will be limited considering the reverence for Clemson and the lack of losses elsewhere on the profile, but the nature of the loss has opened the debate when stacked up against a Texas A&M or Cincinnati. The Bearcats didn't anything help themselves against Tulsa, but the win will keep them up in the top six of the AP rankings even if it's not enough to crash the top four in the playoff rankings.  

Further down in the rankings we're expecting San Jose State to be one of the biggest risers after making the program's first appearance in the AP Top 25 in nearly a decade just last week. The Spartans were No. 25 but with an undefeated record and now a Mountain West Championship Game win against Boise State we should see some serious movement up to the neighborhood of Louisiana and Liberty. 

Here's how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday. Last week's rankings in parenthesis.

1. Alabama (1): No question about No. 1 in terms of the consensus, but again, we'll see if any first-place votes travel to Clemson. 

2. Clemson (4): The Tigers were one of the biggest winners of the weekend because we were snapped right back into place of expecting this to be the top challenger to a top-ranked Crimson Tide team heading into the College Football Playoff. 

3. Ohio State (3): The AP voters had Clemson ahead of Ohio State while the CFP Selection Committee had the Tigers ahead in its CFP Rankings, but there's nothing about that first-half deficit that's going to power momentum for maintaining that lead in this week's balloting. The Buckeyes are a top-four team and probably going to hang at No. 3, but even Trey Sermon's historic day is not going to be enough to make a run at No. 2 after Notre Dame's loss. 

4. Notre Dame (2): No AP voter has a say in the CFP Rankings, but every AP voter is going to put themselves in the shoes of a committee member when they try to decide what to do with No. 4. The Irish only have one loss, but it's a recent and startling loss on a big stage. Notre Dame will be judged against Texas A&M with its one-loss against undefeated Cincinnati, and I'm guessing they maintain their advantage over both based on the strength of performance across the entirety of the season. 

5. Texas A&M (5): The Aggies did what they needed to do in terms of winning and winning handily at Tennessee, and Jimbo Fisher made his employer proud with the way he stumped for the Aggies' inclusion in the playoff after the win. Will it be enough? We'll see on Sunday. 

6. Cincinnati (6): After all the outrage regarding Cincinnati's drop in the rankings while not playing, there was actually heightened expectations for the Bearcats to put a number on Tulsa and make its argument as a potential playoff crasher should we hit the chaos scenarios. Instead, it was a tight 27-24 win for the AAC title and probably leaves Cincinnati closer to Coastal Carolina than Alabama. 

7. Indiana (7): The Old Oaken Bucket was not on the line this week either as the Indiana-Purdue rivalry game was canceled for the second time because of COVID issues. 

8. Coastal Carolina (9): The Sun Belt Championship Game was called off because of COVID-19 issues, and both the Chanticleers and Louisiana were declared co-champions. 

9. Florida (11): Even though Alabama held the advantage for much of the game, the fact that the Gators were relentless and pushed the top-ranked Tide to the final minute is worth a bump up in the rankings. Will it lead to a placement closer to the Gators CFP Ranking of No. 7? We'll see, I think they're up but maybe not to No. 7. 

10. Oklahoma (12): If the Sooners' profile only had the Iowa State loss we could be having some very spirited discussions about their place in the playoff picture, arguing that Oklahoma "beat everyone on its schedule" by avenging the earlier loss. But now that defeat to Kansas State looms large as the reasons Oklahoma will not be in the playoff for the first time in the Lincoln Riley era, even if it is playing like one of the best teams in the country at this moment. 

11. Iowa State (8): There will be a knock for losing a third game but the competitiveness of the Big 12 title game is going to make slotting the Cyclones easy. There's no way they fall too far behind Oklahoma and definitely not behind North Carolina, the highest-ranked three-loss team coming into the weekend.  

12. Georgia (10): The Bulldogs' Week 16 date with Vanderbilt was canceled. 

13. Northwestern (15): Maybe there's a slight bump up in the rankings for how unexpectedly interesting the Big Ten Championship Game was all the way into the third quarter? If BYU ends up ahead of Northwestern again, it's not something to gripe about but we're actually projecting a slight bump up from any doubters that might have finally bought in based on that halftime lead against the Buckeyes. 

14. BYU (14): The Cougars were off in Week 16. 

15. North Carolina (16): The Tar Heels were off in Week 16. 

16. Louisiana (17): The Ragin' Cajuns did not end up getting their opportunity for revenge against Coastal Carolina with the Sun Belt Championship called off because of COVID-19 issues. 

17. San Jose State (25): Undefeated and now conference champions after taking down Boise State, I think the Spartans are due for one of the biggest jumps we'll see in the rankings this week. 

18. Iowa (18): The Hawkeyes' Week 16 date with Michigan was canceled because of COVID-19 issues. 

19. Miami (19): The Hurricanes were off in Week 16.  

20. Tulsa (20): Could we see the Golden Hurricane move up for their competitiveness against undefeated Cincinnati in the AAC title game? Tulsa has exceeded expectations all year but there's still been a reason for those expectations. We'll see if the AP voters are convinced enough to jump Iowa or Miami but I don't think Tulsa gets ahead of Louisiana. 

21. Texas (21): The Longhorns were off in Week 16. 

22. Liberty (22): The Flames were off in Week 16. 

23. NC State (24): The Wolfpack were off in Week 16. 

24. USC (13): While immensely disappointing, Friday night's loss to Oregon won't be enough to bounce the Trojans from the top 25. USC may have been the lowest-ranked undefeated team from the Power Five but it's still got top 25 cache as a one-loss team. The problem from a ballot perspective is there isn't a head-to-head win to cushion the Trojans' fall because none of the teams they beat received a single top 25 vote in last week's balloting. 

25. UAB (NR): In a season that saw the Blazers have a handful of games canceled, perhaps it was those nonconference tests that were played (against Miami and Louisiana) that provided the tests to prepare UAB for the Conference USA Championship Game against Marshall. Bill Clark has done a stellar job leading this program through a shutdown, return and now two conference titles in three years. 

Projected to fall out of the rankings: Buffalo (23)