USC v Michigan
Getty Images

There are six undefeated teams remaining in college basketball as we sit one week into the 2026 calendar year: Arizona, Michigan, Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Nebraska and Miami (Ohio). No team has had a perfect season in the sport since the Indiana Hoosiers went 32-0 under Bob Knight in 1975-76, and no team this season (spoiler alert!) will join that IU club among the group of seven teams to be undefeated national champions.

Sorry to break the news this way, Wolverines, Cornhuskers, Wildcats, Cyclones, RedHawks and Commodores fans: but the dream season doesn't end in perfection in 2025-26.Just this week the prospect of perfection has been stress-tested. Miami (Oh.) escaped with a three-point road win over Akron on Saturday; Nebraska bested Ohio State on Monday by a final margin of three points; and Michigan on Tuesday defeated Penn State by two points -- its first win by fewer than 18 points since Nov. 14.One by one, our experts predict, each of the final unbeaten teams will take Ls. 

Court Report: What being undefeated in January means for success in March; teams most like Indiana football
Matt Norlander
Court Report: What being undefeated in January means for success in March; teams most like Indiana football

But when those slip-ups come -- and indeed they will come -- is a mystery. Until now, that is. As we gazed into our respective crystal balls late Tuesday night, a clear picture emerged revealing when each of the six will stumble this season. The results of our projections are below.   

Michigan 

Record: 14-0, 4-0 Big Ten

Next game: Saturday vs. Wisconsin, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Predicted first loss: Jan. 30 at Michigan State 

Projected final number of losses: 4

Michigan was ranked seventh in the Associated Press Top 25 preseason poll, meaning nobody should be surprised that the Wolverines are good. They were always supposed to be good after reloading via the transfer portal and adding, among others, former UAB standout Yaxel Lendeborg. But they've obviously been way better than good and are now the favorites to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Ten of Michigan's 14 wins have come by at least 25 points. 

The Wolverines beat Gonzaga by 40, Auburn by 30 and USC by 30 to become the first team in AP poll history to win three straight games against ranked opponents by at least 30. Michigan's current net rating at KenPom.com is +37.65. FYI: No national champion has ever finished with a higher net rating than that in KenPom's database that goes back to the 1996-97 season. So who knows where this thing will end? But, through 14 games, the Wolverines are operating at an extremely high level and would be favored over anybody on a neutral court tonight regardless of the fact that AP voters have opted to keep them ranked second behind Arizona for weeks.

Arizona

Record: 14-0 (1-0 Big 12)

Next game: Wednesday vs. Kansas State, 9 p.m. (FS1)

Predicted first loss: Jan. 26 at BYU

Projected final number of losses: 4 

The Wildcats have been outstanding, having defeated Florida, UCLA, UConn (on the road), Auburn, Alabama and San Diego State. No team has a better buffet of high-end victories than Tommy Lloyd's group. From a resume perspective, Arizona is No. 1 as far as I'm concerned. The Big 12 is tough, and I think getting tripped up at UCF might be on the table, but that trip to BYU at the end of the month is quite clearly the most obvious candidate for this terrific team's first defeat. — Matt Norlander

Iowa State

Record: 14-0 (1-0 Big 12)

Next game: Wednesday at Baylor, 8 p.m. (Peacock)

Predicted first loss: Jan. 13 at Kansas

Projected final number of losses: 4

Few teams in college basketball have been as dominant -- and passed both the eye-test and metrics test -- as Iowa State this season. It is second in scoring margin nationally behind only Michigan, and it is also one of only three teams in the sport with top-10 adjusted efficiency marks on both offense and defense at KenPom. (Michigan and Arizona are the two others; Duke and Gonzaga are dangerously close to joining that bunch.)The perfect dream dies in a place where many an opponent's team dies, though: In Lawrence, Kansas. ISU visits the Jayhawks on Jan. 13, and it will be there, I suspect, the Cyclones' streak of perfection ends. 

KU has sent Iowa State home with an L in games played in Allen Fieldhouse the last seven times they've played there. And this Kansas team, despite its flaws, is still a booger not easily flicked at home. (Just ask TCU.)Don't hear what I'm not saying -- a loss won't send the season into a spiral for ISU. But the Big 12 is still the Big 12, after all, and its champion team is likely losing at least three times before postseason play. Iowa State's regular season schedule, for example, includes tilts vs. teams currently ranked No. 1, No. 7, No. 9, No. 14, No. 22 (twice!) and No. 25 in the latest AP poll. To remain perfectly intact would defy science and perhaps god himself. I think between now and the season's end ISU falls precisely four times.— Kyle Boone

Vanderbilt

Record: 14-0 (1-0 SEC)

Next game: Wednesday vs. No. 13 Alabama, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Predicted first loss: Jan. 20 at Arkansas

Projected final number of losses: 3

Vanderbilt coach Mark Byington improved the Commodores from 9-23 before his arrival to 20-13 last season in an excellent debut campaign capped by the program's first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017. Even matching last year's level, which included two wins over top-10 teams, would have been a good outcome. But Byington has, incredibly, elevated the Commodores to even greater heights. With five players averaging double figures and Vandy shooting a scorching 37.9% from 3-point range, guarding this team is a nightmare. 

Tyler Tanner, Duke Miles and Frankie Collins (currently injured) comprise one of the nation's most productive back courts, as each are averaging 4.7 or more assists and 2.4 or more steals. As those gaudy steal numbers suggest, this team plays aggressive defense, limiting opponents to just 28% 3-point shooting and forcing 14 turnovers per game. Vanderbilt didn't play a brutal nonconference schedule, but it's false to say that it was easy. They beat six top-80 KenPom teams, and five of those victories came by double digits.— David Cobb

Nebraska 

Record: 15-0

Next game:  Saturday at Indiana, 12 p.m.(BTN)

Predicted first loss:  Saturday at Indiana

Projected final number of losses: 6

Six losses is a safe projection for Nebraska, just based on the schedule on tap. The Huskers have a two-week stretch at the end of January and into February that includes tilts with Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. Woof. A double-dip with Iowa and a West Coast swing to face USC and UCLA is also looming. Nebraska is a good basketball team that can win in multiple ways, but there is more variance in this profile because of the 3-point heavy gameplan on both ends of the floor. Plus, Nebraska is still searching for a guard who can consistently bend defenses off the bounce. 

Nebraska looks every bit the part of a second-weekend contender, but the Big Ten will hand it an L soon. Saturday's road tilt against IU will be a war. If Nebraska's scramble defense leaves Lamar Wilkerson or Tucker DeVries open too many times, it will pay the price. KenPom projects Nebraska to go 25-6 overall and 14-6 in Big Ten play. That looks right on the money and would be the best season the Huskers have enjoyed since joining the Big Ten ahead of the 2010-11 campaign. — Isaac Trotter

Miami-Ohio

Record: 16-0 (4-0 MAC)

Next game: Friday at Toledo, 6 p.m. (CBS Sports Network(

Predicted first loss: Jan. 20 at Kent State

Projected final number of losses: 2

Miami (Ohio) is a roster construction outlier, as fourth-year coach Travis Steele took just one transfer amid rare levels of roster retention for a mid-major program. All six players averaging 20 or more minutes per game were part of last year's 25-9 (14-4 MAC) squad that lost a heartbreaker in the MAC Tournament championship game. Consequently, this team ranks No. 4 nationally in minutes continuity per KenPom. 

That cohesion is evidenced by the fact that five players are averaging double figures for the Redhawks. This team is hitting 41.6% of their 3-pointers, which is also No. 4 nationally. With a win over preseason MAC favorite Akron already in the bag, Miami is poised to tear down the school record of 25 wins, which was established last season. — David Cobb