College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Georgia takes No. 1 from Tennessee, LSU may have a ceiling

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There were some significant results coming out of Week 10 that will shake up the top of this season's second College Football Playoff Rankings, not the least of which was No. 1 Tennessee losing at No. 3 Georgia. No. 4 Clemson lost as well, No. 2 Ohio State was pushed by Northwestern, and No. 10 LSU upset No. 6 Alabama. Will the CFP Selection Committee overreact to those results? Why wait and see?

With four weeks left in the regular season, we are here to predict what the top 25 will look like when the committee announces its field Tuesday night. It is a warmup act for the warmup act, which is every edition of the CFP Rankings before the final one comes out after conference championship Saturday.

Before we get to the rankings themselves, here's a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team's ranking beyond their on-field record:

Strength of schedule
Conference championships (when decided)
Head-to-head
Results vs. common opponents
Results vs. ranked opponents

Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents;" in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

However, because this is the first week of the CFP Rankings, technically no team has a win over a ranked opponent. I'm sure the committee can discern which teams are of higher quality on a schedule without referring to a list.

Notice that "game control" is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times the last few full seasons. (The CFP does not have a way to measure "game control" -- I've seen the data the committee uses -- but let's not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.)

With all that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings will look this week. Keep in mind: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do Tuesday night.

Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction

1	Georgia
It turns out that I was a week early with this projection. The Bulldogs won the Game of the Century of the Week over Tennessee and will vault Ohio State into the top position in the rankings. Georgia finishes SEC play with a two-game road trip to Mississippi State and Kentucky, which could bolster the Bulldogs' strength of schedule. Last week: 3
2	Ohio State
There were high winds and sometimes rain across the Midwest, playing havoc with pass-heavy offenses. The Buckeyes only managed 76 yards passing against Northwestern but scrapped out a 21-7 win. Ohio State is unlikely to be tested before the season finale with Michigan. Last week: 2
3	Tennessee
Tennessee gave a decent accounting of itself at Georgia but came up short. I would be surprised if the committee docked the Volunteers too much for that. That is especially true since Clemson lost and Michigan played yet another underwhelming opponent. Last week: 1
4	Michigan
The Wolverines were ranked ahead of TCU last week, and nothing happened that should change the order. If you only saw the score of the Michigan-Rutgers game, 52-17, you would probably be surprised to learn that the Wolverines trailed at halftime (game control!). A little steam has come off of that Illinois game on Nov. 19 after the Illini lost to Michigan State. Last week: 5
5	TCU
The Horned Frogs muddled through a 34-24 come-from-behind win against Texas Tech in which they trailed entering the fourth quarter. That is not going to impress the committee, which did not seem too impressed last week, either, relatively speaking. Last week: 7
6	Oregon
Oregon scored 40+ points for the eighth straight game in a 49-10 drubbing of Colorado. Things will get interesting now for the Ducks as they finish with Washington (likely to move into the rankings) and Utah at home, plus a road trip to Oregon State (likely out of the rankings). Last week: 8
7	LSU
The Tigers could be higher after beating Alabama, 32-31, in overtime. The committee does not seem to give much credence to the season-opening loss to Florida State. It's not nothing, though, or LSU would be in the top four already. The Tigers control their own fate for an SEC championship. Last week: 10
8	Alabama
The Crimson Tide now have two losses by a total of four points, one on a last-second field goal and the other in overtime. That is why I do not expect much of a fall for Alabama in this week's rankings. However, unless disaster befalls LSU, that second loss has sealed the Crimson Tide's fate in terms of the playoff. Last week: 6
9	USC
The Trojans struggled to put California away but did leave with a six-point win. That could see USC end up a spot or two below this in the rankings. Colorado serves as a warmup for a tough finishing schedule with games against traditional rivals UCLA on the road and at home to Notre Dame. A 12-1 USC would be the strongest Pac-12 candidate for a playoff spot, mostly because the Trojans do not have a 46-point loss to Georgia hanging over their heads. Last week: 9
10	Ole Miss
The Rebels are in the same boat as Alabama as far as the conference race goes, but the Sugar Bowl or another New Year's Six game could be in play for the winner between those two in Oxford. Last week: 11
11	UCLA
The Bruins keep cruising along, treading water until they get their shot at USC on Nov. 19. That game could determine a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game and a possible Rose Bowl berth. It also cannot be ruled out that a 12-1 Pac-12 champion could end up in the CFP. Last week: 12
12	Clemson
The Tigers took it in the teeth at Notre Dame in a 35-14 loss, a score that was every bit indicative of the dominance of the Fighting Irish. That game took place where Marshall and Stanford won. It is too early to say Clemson is done as a playoff contender, but this loss hurts. If it makes them feel any better, the Tigers clinched a berth in the ACC Championship Game when Syracuse lost at Pittsburgh. Last week: 4
13	Utah
Utah is also in play for the Pac-12 title but has no realistic shot at the CFP. The Utes already have two losses, one of which was the season opener at Florida. They have to win out, including the game at Oregon on Nov. 19. Last week: 14
14	Penn State
The Nittany Lions throttled Indiana, as they should. Penn State is done with the meat of its schedule. It will be a heavy favorite the rest of the way. A 10-2 record could put the Nittany Lions in the New Year's Six. Last week: 15
15	North Carolina
The Tar Heels can clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson with a win at Wake Forest. They have a two-game lead with three to play but hold the tiebreaker over second-place Duke. Last week: 17
16	Texas
The Longhorns can take a big step toward a Big 12 championship when they host TCU. Texas is an early 7-point favorite to take down the undefeated Horned Frogs. The win at Kansas State created a three-way tie for second with the Wildcats and Baylor. The 'Horns host the Bears to end the regular season. Last week: 24
17	NC State
Freshman MJ Morris has done a nice job taking over for Devin Leary, leading the Wolfpack to consecutive wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The ACC title is out of reach, so NC State is playing for a good bowl game. Last week: 22
18	Washington
The Huskies moved to 7-2 with a win over Oregon State and should make their debut in the rankings. They can really make a splash if they win at league-leading Oregon. Last week: NR
19	Notre Dame
The Irish have put together a weird season but picked up their best win so far in demolishing previously undefeated Clemson. It is hard to see much of a ceiling for Notre Dame with home losses to Marshall and Stanford standing out, but the Irish also now have wins over the likely ACC Championship Game participants. Last week: NR
20	Tulane
The race for the Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six kicks into another gear down the stretch with Tulane at UCF, followed by a game at Cincinnati to end the season. Most likely, the Cotton Bowl will get whichever of those three emerges with the title, though Coastal Carolina or a Mountain West champion cannot be ruled out. Last week: 19
21	Florida State
I thought the strength of a win over LSU would push the Seminoles into the rankings last week. Perhaps this will be the week. FSU did not seem to take the snub well and drilled Miami, 45-3. Of course, it could just be because the Seminoles like drilling the Hurricanes. Last week: NR
22	Kansas State
It has been an up-and-down past few weeks for the Wildcats, which saw them take losses to TCU and Texas sandwiched around a 48-0 win over Oklahoma State. Things will not be easier with back-to-back road games coming up. Last week: 13
23	Kansas
Congratulations to the Jayhawks! They are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2008. In just short of two seasons, coach Lance Leopold has already won more games (eight) than each of his four immediate predecessors. Last week: NR
24	UCF
The Knights can move into a tie for first and have tiebreakers with each of the other contenders if they can win at Tulane. They already beat Cincinnati back on Oct. 29. The AAC plays its championship game at the home site of the regular season winner, so this stretch is important for each of those teams. Last week: 25
25	Oklahoma State
The Cowboys came out in bad shape after the state of Kansas road trip. They lost twice by a combined 75-16. The conference title is at best a long shot now, but they are done playing the teams ahead of them in the standings. Last week: 18