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Beyond the wins and losses, there is a narrative at stake here that's more than just wins and losses. A loss in the College Football Playoff opener can steer conventional wisdom -- right or wrong -- about a team, or in this year's case, whether half the sport even belongs in the format at all. 

Eight teams are will kick off the CFP festivities in this year's format that gives us straight seeding, opposed to last year where four of the five highest-ranked conference champions earned the first-round byes. So, going matchup by matchup, what would a loss mean for each team that plays in the first round? 

Let's have a look at the potential consequences ...

(9) Alabama at (8) Oklahoma 

Alabama: The Kalen DeBoer "will he or won't he" will only get turned up to 11 if Alabama is unable to come away with the victory for a second time this season against Oklahoma. When you stack it up, losses to Oklahoma would be the bookends to a wretched final third of the season for Bama. After four wins in a row against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri (with Beau Pribula) and Tennessee, no team was hotter than the Crimson Tide in October. It looked like they had moved past their embarrassment against Florida State. Then, they lost to OU in Tuscaloosa in a turnover-fueled showcase. Then, they nearly lost to Auburn after going up 17-0. Then, got drubbed by Georgia in the SEC title game. 

Now, if they fall to the Sooners for a second time this fall? It will begin a loud offseason of is he the right man for the job for DeBoer, which is a drumbeat that feels like it barely every really faded since he showed up in the wake of Nick Saban's dynastic run. That is, of course, if he is telling the truth when saying he plans on being Alabama's coach next season amid the Michigan rumors. 

Oklahoma: You do have to give Brent Venables credit for stepping back and allowing Jim Nagy to come in to revamp the front office, and bringing in Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer to reshape the offense. Both moves look like masterstrokes powering the big turnaround in Norman in addition to Venables getting more hands-on with one of the nation's best defenses. But if they drop this game to Bama, there will need to be serious questions about whether OU can actually create a sustainable offensive system moving forward. The defense and the special teams have been opportunistic and contributed points, but the offense hasn't scored more than 3 touchdowns in a game against a power conference opponent all season. 

(10) Miami at (7) Texas A&M

Miami: You will certainly hear from Notre Dame fans if either Alabama or Miami lose in the first round. Despite the fact that it is a fallacy to judge whether a team belongs in a tournament based on what they do in the tournament, that won't stop Irish fans from feeling like they got screwed by the Alabama playoff committee industrial complex or the fact that, on recent form, they certainly have looked better than Miami since September. If it's a close loss with a game management mistake, we'll also get a little dash of Mario Cristobal criticism, which you can never discount when Miami is in a big spot. 

Texas A&M: This team enjoyed one of the best seasons in program history since color television was invented; still, what if the Aggies could not do any of the following three things: 

  • Beat Texas 
  • Win their conference title 
  • Win a playoff game 

That will be a damning indictment of Aggies falling short of expectations, as usual. Everything Mike Elko has built this A&M team into from a culture perspective seems like it's made to avoid the common potholes this team has fallen into in the decades-long quest for staying power among the sport's elites. But stack those failures up, and the proof will be in the pudding. 

(11) Tulane at (6) Ole Miss

Tulane: What if it's too much for Jon Sumrall, in the end, to balance two jobs? That's not shade but more a reality of the situation, especially if Tulane gets embarrassed. In theory, Tulane has the much better chance in comparison to James Madison of springing a major upset in the first round. These two teams have met before, which allows for a base with which to build a game plan upon and tweak specifically what didn't work in the teams' initial matchups. Yes, the Ole Miss staff will be different, and the game will be managed and called differently without Lane Kiffin there, but there's a path to shocking the college football world that's much clearer to see in Oxford. If they can't, the Green Wave will join last year's Boise State as a nice story that couldn't get it done when the lights were brightest.

Ole Miss: There are ready-made excuses for Ole Miss if it drops this game to Tulane. Yes, it will be embarrassing if the Rebels lose to a team they beat soundly in Week 1, but the obvious 1,000-pound gorilla in the room is the coach who left and the assistants he's taking with him. Perhaps, in the end, they couldn't balance prep work for LSU with finishing the task in Oxford. Perhaps key players also had their heads turned by potential future prospects in Baton Rouge with their former coach or elsewhere. It will be an unfair referendum on Pete Golding's ability as a head coach in a one-game sample size, but you never get a second chance to make a first impression.

(5) James Madison at (5) Oregon 

James Madison: For JMU, a loss -- especially a laughable blowout -- would justify the concerns bad-faith actors have surrounding Group of Five teams in the College Football Playoff. The truth of the matter is that if Virginia had won the ACC championship or if the ACC's tie-breaking scenarios were structured differently (think using CFP ranking as the American does), a hypothetical Virginia-Miami ACC title game would have guaranteed JMU was on the outside looking in. The ACC's loss from an automatic qualifier standpoint is James Madison's gain, and here it sits theoretically four games from the greatest Cinderella story in the history of the sport. 

Some are very openly musing about whether G5 teams belong in the tournament at all (they do, and the threat of an antitrust lawsuit from the G5 leagues is a big arrow in their quiver if a future format tries to exclude them). The problem is the Dukes are 21-point underdogs and Oregon is 6-2 against the spread as a double-digit favorite. Under Dan Lanning, the Ducks have a menacing air about them as they take care of business. This game shouldn't be close, and for JMU it's not just about the fact that it most likely will lose, it's by how much. It is not fair for this to become a referendum on the G5, but easy narratives are often the most common. 

Oregon: Maybe these Ducks were a year too early after all? The team that looked like a buzzsaw for so much of the season botching a first-round game that could not be more teed up for them would be a face plant the likes of which we have not seen in quite a while and points to the fact that maybe there is more parity than people realize. This would be Boise State vs. Oklahoma, except it would actually matter for the national championship and not just confined to an epic Fiesta Bowl. This would be at Autzen after weeks to meticulously game plan and get healthy (noteworthy for a beaten up Ducks team). This would be another in a string of weird ways Dan Lanning has fallen short, but this isn't against national championship game-bound Washington or Ohio State. There will be no excuse for Oregon if it loses this game.