College Football Playoff picks, predictions: Alabama vs. Oklahoma among bold bets for CFP's first round
Here's a bold bet for every first-round game of the College Football Playoff, as well as a pick to win it all

We've reached the first round of the College Football Playoff, with four games across Friday and Saturday as the field will move from 12 to eight teams. Three of the four SEC teams in the tournament are in action this weekend and interestingly enough, two of the four first-round matchups are actually rematches of games we saw during the regular season. With the CFP set to begin this Friday, here's a look some bold bets for the first round as well as a futures pick for the winner of the entire playoff at top sportsbooks.
Oklahoma money line vs. Alabama
This one is essentially a pick 'em, and it's moved back and forth between the two sides and currently gives a slight lean towards the home side in Oklahoma. I'd still say backing the Sooners is a bold bet here when you dive into the last matchup between these teams, which Oklahoma won in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners were outgained 406-212 in that game and won largely due to self-inflicted wounds on the Alabama side as the Tide had three turnovers while Oklahoma had none. Add that all up and it seems like the Sooners got lucky and escaped.
Oklahoma's defense remains legit and the Sooners' lone loss at home this year was a close one to Ole Miss, another CFP team. There's far more pressure and noise around Alabama, too, as Kalen DeBoer-Michigan rumors have been swirling even as he denies interest and tried to keep the focus on this game. We know this Oklahoma team can force and capitalize on turnovers, and Alabama is coming off an ugly showing against Georgia after not looking like a title team against Auburn. Let's lean with the home side here in what may well be the best game of the first round.
Miami money line at Texas A&M
This is a weird game to look at after both teams ended the year on down notes.
Miami got into the CFP thanks largely to a Week 1 win over Notre Dame and the fact that the CFP would have had no ACC representation without including the Hurricanes as an at-large team at the Irish's expense. Miami had another late-season collapse of sorts, though, losing to Louisville and SMU in the second half of the year a really poor season for the ACC. The Aggies, meanwhile, fell to Texas in the final week of the regular season, which resulted in an 11-1 record and failing to reach the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M also beat Notre Dame for its signature win, and the Aggies benefited from a rather light SEC schedule by avoiding all of Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. The one ranked SEC team they faced was that loss to Texas.
If there's one thing we've seen from A&M this year, it's shootouts. The Aggies have a high-powered offense, but the defense can be suspect at times. The Hurricanes have their faults, but the offense is good and they have playmakers on defense, namely Rueben Bain Jr., a star edge rusher who can take over games and who may very well be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. I don't see either team advancing past the next round, so might as well back the upset at plus money.
Tulane +17.5 vs. Ole Miss
This matchup is a rematch of an early-season game which the Rebels won 45-10 at home. A lot has changed since then, though, as Ole Miss played far more close games than you'd expect while the Green Wave got hot and won the AAC to make the CFP. Oh, and Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss for rival LSU -- have you heard about that?
This will be the head coaching debut of Pete Golding, who was promoted from defensive coordinator to full-time head coach after Kiffin's departure. Tulane is also in the midst of a head coaching change, as Jon Sumrall will leave the team after the CFP for Florida and offensive coordinator Will Hall will be promoted to head coach. That's a lot of noise for both teams to handle, but Ole Miss' breakup has been far messier and publicized. Plus, after multiple players sounded off on Kiffin for leaving and stating they didn't want him to coach the team during the playoff, The Athletic reported this week that the Rebels' player leadership group actually voted 9-3 in favor of Kiffin coaching Ole Miss in the CFP.
The Rebels are the better and more talented team, but many members of the coaching staff have one foot out the door for LSU and some players are sure to follow. Ole Miss will very likely win, but Tulane has the ability to keep this more competitive than you'd initially think, even if the Green Wave lost by 35 to this same team earlier this year.
James Madison +20.5 at Oregon
The second G5-P4 matchup of the first round is out on the West Coast with Oregon hosting James Madison. The Ducks went 11-1 with their lone loss to No. 1 seed Indiana, while JMU went 12-1 and won the Sun Belt. Coach Bob Chesney is set to leave the Dukes for UCLA, but he'll lead them into at least one more game with this playoff matchup.
The Ducks are heavy favorites as they're at home and are clearly the more talented team. Dan Lanning loves to run up scores like we're still in the old BCS days for style points, but now that Oregon is in the CFP, that doesn't really matter-- nor should it. Assuming the Ducks jump out to an early lead, why risk player injury for the second round by keeping starters in longer than you need to? Oregon will almost certainly win here, but it's far more likely we see the Ducks take their foot off the gas in the second half if it seems like they've got it handled.
Texas Tech to win College Football Playoff (+800, DraftKings)
We'll end this with a futures pick and back the Red Raiders, who have the fourth-shortest odds in the field, to win it all for the first time in program history. Texas Tech has dominated this season, blowing out every opponent along the way besides a setback against Arizona State. The Red Raiders have used NIL and the transfer portal to their advantage to create one of the deepest rosters in the nation. While all eyes are on Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia, the Red Raiders enter the CFP third in the nation in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Their offense is balanced while their defense is suffocating. Yes, the Big 12 has lost its shine a bit amid conference realignment, but Texas Tech looks like a legit title contender. Should the Red Raiders get past the winner of James Madison-Oregon, a presumed matchup against Indiana will be intriguing between two physical teams with smashmouth defenses. Texas Tech is awfully interesting at these odds.
















