College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Washington jumps Florida State into four teams leading top 25
Jerry Palm takes a crack at how the CFP Rankings should look when they are released Tuesday night
By
Jerry Palm
•
8 min read
We still have five major undefeated teams that will top the College Football Playoff Rankings this week. They all won last Saturday, but some got more of a push than the others. It is at the point where you can almost justify any order in the rankings for those five teams, and we are at the point of the season where we will have big games every week from here on out.
Of course, this is a warmup act for the warmup act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one. Remember, these rankings do not act like a traditional 25 poll where, as long as a team keeps winning, it is unlikely to get passed. Each set of CFP Rankings gets tossed after it is announced with teams reevaluated from scratch every week.
Before we get to the predicted rankings themselves, here's a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team's ranking beyond their on-field record:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (once decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. when the games are played. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents;" in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
Notice that "game control" is not listed among the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of past committee chairmen. (The CFP does not have a way to measure "game control" -- I've seen the data the committee uses -- but let's not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.) And really, who cares how you get to the win as long as you get there?
With all that in mind, here is how I believe the CFP Rankings will look tonight. Remember: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do this evening.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 |  |
| Rutgers hung around with the Buckeyes for a while before Ohio State was able to put the game away. The Scarlet Knights are arguably the fifth-best team in the Big Ten this season, but I do not get the impression that the committee thinks much of them. I expect to Ohio State hang on here for another week at least. The Buckeyes were hurt more by Notre Dame's loss at Clemson than any perception of their performance against Rutgers. Last week: 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Bulldogs picked up their first win of the season against a team in last week's CFP Rankings. The 30-21 defeat of Missouri may not be enough to push Georgia past Ohio State in this week's rankings, but I will not be totally shocked if it does. The Bulldogs' strength of schedule gets another boost this week when they host Ole Miss. Last week: 2 | |
| 3 |  |
| Michigan had another easy time of things with a 41-13 win over Purdue, though that is the most points the Wolverines have allowed so far this season. They get their first real test this week at Penn State. It speaks to how bad Michigan's schedule has been that it isn't being tested until Nov. 11. Last week: 3 | |
| 4 |  |
| Washington beat USC 52-42, which is a typical score for a game involving the Trojans. Like many of the teams at the top of these rankings, tougher tests are ahead beginning with Utah. However, the strength of schedule difference with Florida State has me projecting the Huskies to move past the Seminoles in the rankings this week. Last week: 5 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Noles won at Pittsburgh, as expected, though not with the scoring margin that might have been expected. Florida State is disadvantaged by the fact that rest of the ACC is down and that it does not play the two other ACC teams in these projected rankings during the regular season. FSU still has games left with Miami and Florida, but FCS North Alabama is sandwiched between. That is not going to help. Last week: 4 | |
| 6 |  |
| Oregon is hitting on all cylinders right how. The Ducks destroyed California, 63-19, which should be good enough to hold off Alabama for another week. They get their shootout with USC at home this week. Last week: 6 | |
| 7 |  |
| Texas got some good off-field news as quarterback Quinn Ewers has been upgraded to day-to-day. Maalik Murphy has filled in well, leading the Longhorns to an overtime win against Kansas State. Unlike many teams here, Texas has a relatively easy stretch to finish the season. Last week: 7 | |
| 8 |  |
| The only thing standing between the Crimson Tide and No. 6 in these rankings is that their only loss came to Texas. Alabama beat LSU to pick up its third win over a ranked team. All of those wins have come at home. Last week: 8 | |
| 9 |  |
| The Rebels got a pretty good fight from Texas A&M but came away with a 38-35 win. Perhaps they were looking ahead to that big game at Georgia. Ole Miss will have to play better if it hopes to dethrone the two-time reigning champions. Last week: 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| The Nittany Lions ran roughshod over Maryland, which is fading fast. It was a pretty good tuneup for the clash with Michigan in what figures to be a raucous Happy Valley. Last week: 11 | |
| 11 |  |
| The Cardinals continues their push to an ACC title game with a decisive win over Virginia Tech. They get Virginia at home this week, which does not provide much of an opportunity for upward mobility in these rankings. Last week: 13 | |
| 12 |  |
| Mizzou put up a good fight at Georgia before ultimately falling short. All is not lost, though. The Tigers can still make a push for a New Year's Six game. Beating Tennessee at home this week is a must for that to happen. Last week: 12 | |
| 13 |  |
| The Beavers bounced back from the loss to Arizona with a win at Colorado. They also have an outside shot at a New Year's Six game but must win out to finish 10-2. A worse record won't get it done. Last week: 16 | |
| 14 |  |
| The Utes took out some frustration from the loss to Oregon on Arizona State in a 55-3 win. Their path to the New Year's Six is tough because games at Washington and Arizona are next. Last week: 18 | |
| 15 |  |
| Oklahoma State is the Bedlam title holder for the foreseeable future after knocking off Oklahoma in the last scheduled game in this rivalry. The Cowboys are also in the driver's seat for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. They own tiebreakers over the three teams tied for third behind them in the conference standing and have a favorable schedule to finish the regular season. Last week: 22 | |
| 16 |  |
| The Volunteers destroyed UConn in a glorified scrimmage and now get ready to visit Missouri. The division title is not entirely out of reach for Tennessee because it still plays Georgia. The Vols would need some help though because they trail the Dawgs by two games. Last week: 17 | |
| 17 |  |
| Kansas is in the best shape to get to the Big 12 title game if Oklahoma State falters because the Jayhawks have a win over Oklahoma and still face Kansas State at home. Last week: 21 | |
| 18 |  |
| The Sooners went from having a chance to make the CFP to hoping to salvage a New Year's Six bowl berth in eight days. They will be favored the rest of the way but may not get high enough in the rankings for a New Year's Six game -- even at 10-2 -- without some help. Last week: 9 | |
| 19 |  |
| The Tigers lost at Alabama, which dropped them out of the conference race. More important is the health of QB Jayden Daniels, who left the game late and is currently in concussion protocol. Last week: 14 | |
| 20 |  |
| Unfortunately for Notre Dame, the Clemson team we had been expecting to see most of this season showed up against the Fighting Irish, handing them a 31-23 defeat. That puts any hopes of a New Year's berth to rest. Last week: 15 | |
| 21 |  |
| The Wildcats came within a whisker of upending the Big 12 title race, but fell at Texas in overtime. It is an uphill battle now for Kansas State to repeat as conference champions. The Wildcats need to win out and get help. Last week: 23 | |
| 22 |  |
| The biggest contender for the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six (Air Force) fell to the wayside, and the path is wide open for Tulane now. The Green Wave likely have to win out to go back to the New Year's Six for a second straight season. Last week: 24 | |
| 23 |  |
| Nobody wins uglier than Iowa. In fact, it's possible nobody has consistently won this ugly since the black-and-white television era. But winning is winning, and the Hawkeyes could be on their way to a double-digit total despite losing their starting quarterback and best wide receiver in the middle of the season. Last week: NR | |
| 24 |  |
| On the other hand, nobody plays more entertaining football than USC, but it does not always result in wins. The Trojans finally fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch this week after giving up 52 points in a home loss to Washington. Last week: 20 | |
| 25 |  |
| The Wildcats have come on strong lately. Since a triple-overtime loss at USC, they have won three straight, including victories over Oregon State and UCLA. Last week: NR | |
