College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Oklahoma gets the job done, stays in front
What will the final CFP Rankings look like upon their release? Jerry Palm takes a stab hours before the show
The time has finally arrived. No more warmup acts for the warmup act. We are here to predict what the final top 25 will look like when the College Football Playoff Selection Committee makes its CFP Rankings announcement Sunday at approximately 2 p.m. ET.
In this space, we will try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.
What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after. With all of that in mind, here is what I think the top 25 would look like if it was released this week.
| 1 | |
| Alabama finally got a challenge in the SEC Championship Game. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was hurt, then hurt again. Then Jalen Hurts came in and saved the day. If anything, having a game like this makes the Crimson Tide even more dangerous. (Last week: 1) | |
| 2 | |
| Clemson did what it should do to a 7-5 team like Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers appear to be on a collision course with Alabama again. (2) | |
| 3 | |
| The Irish got to watch all the fun on TV since their season ended last week. (3) | |
| 4 | |
| Oklahoma played arguably its best game of the season in the win over Texas to secure the Big 12 title. That avenged the Sooners only loss, which was a 48-45 defeat to the Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry. (5) | |
| 5 | |
| The Buckeyes slogged their way to a win over Northwestern for the Big Ten title. Ohio State put it away late so the score didn't indicate the tightness of the game. No scoring margin was going to help the Buckeyes jump ahead of Oklahoma anyway. (6) | |
| 6 | |
| The Bulldogs gave Alabama a game, which is noteworthy in that nobody else had done so this season. Still, a loss is a loss and Georgia's other loss was by 20 at LSU. (4) | |
| 7 | |
| The Wolverines watched OSU win the Big Ten and a trip to Pasadena. They will have to settle for a berth in another New Year's Six game. (7) | |
| 8 | |
| Inspired by injured quarterback McKenzie Milton, UCF came from behind to beat Memphis for a second time and win the AAC championship. The Knights are likely headed for the Fiesta Bowl. (8) | |
| 9 | |
| Florida is well positioned for a spot in a New Year's Six game. Perhaps another battle with Michigan. It's either that or UCF. (9) | |
| 10 | |
| The Tigers find themselves ranked fourth among SEC teams, but that should still be good enough for a New Year's Six berth. (10) | |
| 11 | |
| The Huskies won one of the most uninspiring conference championship games you will hope you didn't see, but it smells like roses to them. (11) | |
| 12 | |
| The Nittany Lions needed help to reach the New Year's Six, and that help didn't come. (12) | |
| 13 | |
| The Cougars were treated very harshly by the committee last week and spent this week lobbying for a higher ranking. (13) | |
| 14 | |
| The Wildcats are another team the committee didn't treat well enough. Florida's win over LSU meant something, but their win over the Gators did not. (15) | |
| 15 | |
| Texas wasn't quite up to beating Oklahoma a second time. The Longhorns were tied with the Sooners at the end of three quarters but couldn't find any points in the fourth. (14) | |
| 16 | |
| The Mountaineers could jump Texas this week, but it will not matter for the bowls. If Oklahoma is in the playoff, Texas gets the Sugar Bowl berth by virtue of its second place finish. (16) | |
| 17 | |
| The Bulldogs appear to be headed to Nashville for the Music City Bowl. (18) | |
| 18 | |
| The Aggies should be well rested now after that seven overtime game Thanksgiving weekend. (19) | |
| 19 | |
| The Utes only managed three points against Washington but still had a chance to tie the game late. A controversial missed pass interference call ended that threat. (17) | |
| 20 | |
| Syracuse probably should have been ranked higher, but the committee has downgraded ACC teams not named Clemson all season. (20) | |
| 21 | |
| The Wildcats hung around with Ohio State but never threatened to beat them. This was the first game Northwestern played this season with a scoring margin of more than 14 points. (21) | |
| 22 | |
| The Bulldogs avenged an earlier loss on the blue turf of Boise State with a 19-16 overtime win for the Mountain West title. (25) | |
| 23 | |
| The Tigers made their season debut in the rankings last week. (24) | |
| 24 | |
| ISU scheduled a throwaway game against Drake and nearly threw it away. (23) | |
| 25 | |
| The Wolfpack also scheduled a throwaway game. Theirs was against East Carolina, which threw away their coach this week and then played like they didn't have one. (NR) | |
















