2024 Fantasy Baseball: Stud or sleeper at outfield, a strategy guide for how to draft each position

When you fire up your draft this year, you'll probably notice something about the positional breakdown of Round 1: it's almost entirely outfielders. By ADP, eight of the first 12 picks are outfielders, and another, Yordan Alvarez, will climb his way into that group in some leagues.

"Well," you might think to yourself, "it's clear where all the talent lies. I'm going to outsmart everyone and take one of the top infielders instead, happy to settle for what I'm sure will still be a quality option at this obviously loaded position."

But all you'll have done in that case is outsmart yourself. The outfield is brutally duplicitous this year. For what it offers in top-shelf, awe-inspiring, make-or-break-your-season talent, it lacks in all other forms of talent. This might not be such a problem at a position where every team starts just one player, but outfield happens to be the one offensive position where, regardless of format, every team starts several.

Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
Position Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

By now, you've read my strategy guide for each of the infield positions (and if you haven't, get to it), so you're at least vaguely aware that I'd be content starting any of the top 15 or so options at each. Here, though, it's more like the top 30 options -- which is a bigger number, yes, but when you consider that three times as many outfielders are started as any one type of infielder, the proportionate number would be 45.

Now imagine if it's a five-outfielder league.

What I'm getting at is that, beyond Round 1 at least, outfield is the pits, which not only ramps up the pressure to invest in Round 1 but also requires a riskier approach in the rounds that follow. (And yes, this goes double in five-outfielder leagues.)

Basically, there are two positions around which you should devise your draft strategy in 2024. One is starting pitcher, because one is always starting pitcher, but the other is outfield. With every pick you're about to make, you should ask yourself if there's an outfielder who would work just as well. And if there is, you should take him.

Unless, of course, you're already full in the outfield, but the odds of that are slim to none, I'd say.

The First-Round Contenders

	2024 ADP	2023 PPG	2023 BA	2023 HR
Ronald Acuna ATL RF	1	5.14	.338	41
Mookie Betts LAD RF	2	4.25	.306	39
Julio Rodriguez SEA CF	4	3.59	.275	32
Corbin Carroll ARI LF	5	3.80	.285	25
Kyle Tucker HOU RF	6	3.81	.284	29
Juan Soto NYY LF	7	3.64	.275	35
Aaron Judge NYY RF	10	3.84	.267	37
Fernando Tatis SD RF	11	3.31	.257	25
Yordan Alvarez HOU DH	15	3.94	.293	31

Here they are: the nine outfielders who you might draft in Round 1 and, in fact, probably should. I say that as someone who ranks both Bobby Witt (second overall) and Freddie Freeman (sixth overall), two non-outfielders, higher than the consensus, which makes me less likely than the average drafter to select an outfielder in Round 1. So take it from someone who knows: it's really hard if you don't. You're fighting an uphill battle the rest of the draft and have to err on the side of taking one at every point where it's at all in question.

Which might not be for a while, by the way. See, for as many outfielders are worth taking in Round 1, none are worth taking in Round 2 (unless Yordan Alvarez slips that far), and while some people might justify taking Luis Robert or Michael Harris in Round 3, the infielders going in that range are better in my eyes. But we'll talk about Robert and Harris in the next group.

Looking at this group, it's worth stating real quick that Ronald Acuna is the No. 1 pick in all formats. There can be no debating it. He's coming off the best season in Fantasy Baseball history, and the underlying metrics say he underperformed, if you can believe it. I'd pay $15 more for him than any other player in a salary cap draft, and by the values I've assigned, he's basically worth two of Austin Riley. While Julio Rodriguez and Corbin Carroll aren't of the same caliber, they are of a similar variety, projecting a massive stolen base total (say, 40-50) while also delivering early-round production in the other categories. The same is true for Kyle Tucker, but with more like 30 stolen bases. The higher-risk/higher-reward alternative would be Fernando Tatis, whose production was stifled a bit coming off an injury-plagued 2022 but who most would suggest still has 40/40 potential.

I'll add that these nine players should be drafted in a different order depending on whether yours is a points or 5x5 categories league. For the former, the points-per-game category pretty much tells the story. I would go Acuna, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Tucker, Carroll, Rodriguez and Tatis. For a categories league, it's Acuna, Rodriguez, Carroll, Betts, Tucker, Tatis, Judge, Soto, and Alvarez. That the order could change that much shows that the margin between these nine is pretty slim.

Kind Of Exciting, At Least

	2024 ADP	2023 PPG	2023 BA	2023 HR
Luis Robert CHW CF	33	3.16	.264	38
Michael Harris ATL CF	34	2.82	.293	18
Randy Arozarena TB LF	44	3.09	.254	23
Adolis Garcia TEX RF	47	3.36	.245	39
Cody Bellinger CHC CF	52	3.77	.307	26
Mike Trout LAA CF	53	3.09	.263	18
Kyle Schwarber PHI LF	60	3.20	.197	47
Nolan Jones COL LF	65	3.30	.297	20
Christian Yelich MIL LF	72	3.42	.278	19
Bryan Reynolds PIT LF	80	3.08	.263	24
Jazz Chisholm MIA CF	81	2.81	.250	19
Joshua Lowe TB RF	92	3.10	.292	20
Spencer Steer CIN 1B	94	2.99	.272	23
George Springer TOR RF	101	2.89	.258	21
Evan Carter TEX LF	105	3.17	.306	5
Seiya Suzuki CHC RF	109	2.90	.285	20
Teoscar Hernandez LAD RF	125	2.42	.258	26
Jackson Chourio MIL CF	155	-----	.283*	22*
Wyatt Langford TEX OF	191	-----	.360*	10*

*minor-league stats

You'll note that every other hitter position has a group that I call The Studs, which comprises all of the early-round talents, whether it's first round, second, third or sometimes even beyond. But having already separated the first-rounders in the outfield, this next group feels like it's an order of magnitude worse. Like I said, I'm not particularly motivated to draft any of them in Round 2 or even Round 3. Luis Robert comes close in a categories league and performed up to that level last year, staying healthy enough to play in 145 games. But it was the first time he played in even 100, and given the caliber of infielders going in the same range (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve being among them), I'm not willing to wager on him doing it again, especially since I know his runs and RBI will be lacking with the White Sox.

Runs and RBI are also the problem for Michael Harris, whose ADP would lead you to believe he's a third-rounder as well. He indeed has five-category potential, but being confined to the lower third of the Braves lineup severely limits him in two of those categories. Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena is coming off a miserable second half, Adolis Garcia has batting average issues, and Kyle Schwarber has even worse batting average issues. These are supposed to be the good outfielders, remember? If I'm without an outfielder at this stage of the draft, I'm going to have to hold my nose and take one of these in the top 60, but it's more likely to be Mike Trout or Cody Bellinger because I think the cost-to-benefit ratio is higher. (Yes, I'm aware of the downsides, but my point is the downsides are everywhere.)

Preferably, I'm looking to this group for my second outfielder rather than my first, and I find that the one I'm taking most often is Joshua Lowe, whose 20-homer, 32-steal season isn't getting enough love. I'd be equally content with Nolan Jones, and they tend to be drafted closer together than this composite ADP would suggest (one source is absurdly low on Lowe, skewing the overall number). As for the rest of this group, I like Seiya Suzuki's breakout potential and Teoscar Hernandez's bounce-back potential with him stepping into the J.D. Martinez role in the Dodgers offense. The real head-turners, though, are Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford, two top-five prospects who I think have a real shot of making the opening day roster. Expect them to fly up draft boards as they make headlines this spring.

Deserving Starters, Depending On Format

	2024 ADP	2023 PPG	2023 BA	2023 HR
Nick Castellanos PHI RF	102	2.86	.272	29
Anthony Santander BAL RF	119	2.94	.257	28
Lane Thomas WAS RF	120	3.03	.268	28
Cedric Mullins BAL CF	129	2.77	.233	15
Esteury Ruiz OAK CF	136	2.70	.254	5
Ian Happ CHC LF	146	3.00	.248	21
Masataka Yoshida BOS LF	153	2.85	.289	15
TJ Friedl CIN CF	154	3.09	.279	18
Brandon Nimmo NYM CF	163	2.93	.274	24
Tommy Edman STL 2B	165	2.61	.248	13
Jorge Soler MIA DH	167	3.01	.250	36
Chas McCormick HOU LF	174	3.05	.273	22
Steven Kwan CLE LF	176	2.90	.268	5
James Outman LAD CF	177	2.55	.248	23
Lars Nootbaar STL CF	202	2.93	.261	14
Jung-Hoo Lee SF OF	209	-----	.318^	6^

^KBO stats

And with that, the excitement is all but over in the outfield. These players are more utilitarian, capable of meeting the need but without the sort of upside that will have you aching to draft them. Some have frightening downside, in fact, with Lane Thomas and Esteury Ruiz both appearing in my Busts 1.0.

They, along with Cedric Mullins, TJ Friedl and Tommy Edman, are among your best stolen base targets in this range, which naturally makes them more appealing in 5x5 categories leagues. Meanwhile, Masataka Yoshida, Brandon Nimmo, Steven Kwan, Lars Nootbaar and Jung-Hoo Lee, with their superior plate discipline but relative lack of power and/or speed, are the better choices for points leagues. That's not to say there's no crossover appeal for these players -- Kwan and Lee could be batting average standouts for categories leagues, with Kwan potentially also providing a couple dozen stolen bases -- but as a general rule, your scoring format will be the biggest decider when selecting from this group.

It's worth noting that Ruiz isn't just some base-stealer. His 67 steals were second-most in the majors last year, and he was closer to No. 1 (Acuna) than No. 3 (Carroll). But seeing as it's all he brings to the table, which caused him to lose playing time even for the lowly Athletics, I see him as an emergency play only. Jorge Soler has demonstrated 40-homer upside in the past but is no stranger to injury and underachievement. Chas McCormick came within an eyelash of a 20/20 season last year and should be in line for more consistent at-bats this year, but the underlying data is concerning.

The DH-onlys

	2024 ADP	2023 PPG	2023 BA	2023 HR
Shohei Ohtani LAD DH	12	4.29	.304	44
Marcell Ozuna ATL DH	137	3.29	.274	40
Eloy Jimenez CHW DH	173	2.50	.272	18
J.D. Martinez LAD DH	213	3.31	.271	33
Byron Buxton MIN DH	253	2.67	.207	17
Joey Meneses WAS DH	295	2.49	.275	13
Heston Kjerstad BAL DH	387	1.31	.303*	21*
Andrew McCutchen PIT DH	389	2.69	.256	12

Now seems like a good opportunity to address the DH-only players, who obviously aren't eligible in the outfield but are more likely to gain eligibility here than at any other position. There aren't enough of them to give them their own strategy guide, but I wouldn't want to ignore them either.

Obviously, Shohei Ohtani is who he is and will attract first-round attention even as he works his way back from elbow ligament surgery. It shouldn't impact him on the hitting end too much, and as crazy as it sounds, his pitching is superfluous for Fantasy purposes. I'd personally take any of the first-round outfielders over him, even Yordan Alvarez, because while filling an outfield spot early is a positive, filling a DH spot early is a negative. That's especially true given how late Marcell Ozuna, Eloy Jimenez and J.D. Martinez are going. Ozuna just delivered 40 homers and 100 RBI in 144 games for the Braves, and Martinez's pace over the same number of games was 42 homers and 131 RBI.

The Sleepers

	2024 ADP	2023 PPG	2023 BA	2023 OPS
Jordan Walker STL RF	127	2.48	.276	.787
Riley Greene DET CF	169	2.53	.288	.796
Christopher Morel CHC DH	204	2.90	.247	.821
Kerry Carpenter DET RF	210	2.65	.278	.811
Jarren Duran BOS CF	220	2.69	.295	.828
Starling Marte NYM RF	223	2.34	.248	.625
Jarred Kelenic ATL LF	237	2.34	.253	.746
Tyler O'Neill BOS LF	238	2.06	.231	.715
Giancarlo Stanton NYY DH	248	2.38	.191	.695
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC CF	267	0.42	.283*	.876*
Kris Bryant COL RF	275	2.23	.233	.680
Sal Frelick MIL RF	284	2.54	.246	.692
Jasson Dominguez NYY CF	294	4.25	.265*	.802*
Jack Suwinski PIT CF	296	2.49	.224	.793
Jake Fraley CIN RF	312	2.70	.256	.783
Henry Davis PIT RF	317	2.02	.213	.653
Will Benson CIN RF	324	2.31	.275	.863
Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B	333	2.25	.271	.793
Parker Meadows DET CF	339	2.55	.256*	.812*
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS CF	345	1.57	.302*	.870*
Nelson Velazquez KC RF	356	2.92	.235	.888
Matt Wallner MIN LF	369	2.57	.249	.877
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF	382	2.16	.246	.761
Colton Cowser BAL RF	469	1.31	.300*	.937*
Wilyer Abreu BOS CF	478	2.23	.274*	.930*

*minor-league stats

Four of the top five on this list -- Jordan Walker, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Jarren Duran -- are worthy starters, I think, and I was tempted to put them in the previous group alongside Nick Castellanos and Ian Happ. But to keep things consistent across positions, grouping a player with The Sleepers is as much a comment on his upside as where he should be drafted. It stands to reason that some of the best sleepers should be drafted ahead of some of the blah choices from previous groups. Walker has the most overall upside of the four, being the prospect who everyone was salivating over at this time a year ago, but the other three have their specialties -- namely, batting average for Greene, home runs for Carpenter and stolen bases for Duran.

Every else here is a relative Hail Mary. You're hoping something clicks again for Starling Marte, Giancarlo Stanton and Kris Bryant. You're hoping a change of scenery fixes Tyler O'Neill and Jared Kelenic. You're hoping playing time opens up sooner than later for Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ceddanne Rafaela and Colton Cowser. I wouldn't say any of these are high-probability bets, but even so, my favorites to draft from the Hail Marys are Kelenic (for all-around potential), Sal Frelick (for batting average and speed) and Matt Wallner (for power). Also, don't overlook Henry Davis, the former No. 1 overall pick who should regain catcher eligibility early on this year.

The Base-Stealers

Here's where I'd normally provide a wealth of information about all the viable base-stealers at the position in question, but there are so many in the outfield that I have to limit that information to how many bases each of them stole last year. It may not fully express the potential for some, particularly those who stole only a handful (most likely because of time lost to injury), but it'll give you a close enough approximation.

*Studs*		*Starters*		*Sleepers*		*Scrubs*
Ronald Acuna	73	Spencer Steer	15	Jarren Duran	24	Daulton Varsho	16
Mookie Betts	14	George Springer	20	Starling Marte	24	Whit Merrifield	26
Julio Rodriguez	37	Evan Carter	26*	Jarred Kelenic	13	Willi Castro	33
Corbin Carroll	54	Jackson Chourio	44*	Tyler O'Neill	5	Leody Taveras	14
Kyle Tucker	30	Wyatt Langford	12*	Byron Buxton	9	Brandon Marsh	10
Juan Soto	12	Lane Thomas	20	Pete Crow-Armstrong	37*	Jose Siri	12
Fernando Tatis	29	Cedric Mullins	19	Sal Frelick	7	Harrison Bader	20
Shohei Ohtani	20	Esteury Ruiz	67	Jasson Dominguez	40*	Brenton Doyle	22
Luis Robert	20	Ian Happ	14	Jack Suwinski	13	Tommy Pham	22
Michael Harris	20	TJ Friedl	27	Jake Fraley	21	Myles Straw	20
Randy Arozarena	22	Tommy Edman	27	Will Benson	19
Cody Bellinger	20	Chas McCormick	19	Parker Meadows	19*
Nolan Jones	20	Steven Kwan	21	Ceddanne Rafaela	36*
Christian Yelich	28	James Outman	16	Garrett Mitchell	1
Jazz Chisholm	22	Lars Nootbaar	11	Wilyer Abreu	3
Joshua Lowe	32

*minor-league stats

OK, so who haven't I covered yet?

The Best You Can Do Otherwise

	2024 ADP	2023 PPG	2023 BA	2023 HR
Lourdes Gurriel ARI LF	216	2.76	.261	24
Daulton Varsho TOR LF	217	2.14	.220	20
Taylor Ward LAA LF	240	2.78	.253	14
Whit Merrifield TOR 2B	260	2.57	.272	11
Jeff McNeil NYM 2B	261	2.54	.270	10
Alex Verdugo NYY RF	264	2.65	.264	13
MJ Melendez KC RF	270	2.17	.234	16
Max Kepler MIN RF	298	2.67	.260	24
Brendan Donovan STL 2B	305	2.57	.284	11
Willi Castro MIN LF	308	2.41	.257	9
Austin Hays BAL LF	314	2.46	.275	16
Hunter Renfroe KC RF	316	2.23	.233	20
Leody Taveras TEX CF	329	2.45	.266	14
Brent Rooker OAK DH	332	2.46	.246	30
Mitch Haniger SEA LF	350	1.94	.208	6
Charlie Blackmon COL DH	373	2.96	.279	8
Joc Pederson ARI DH	381	2.30	.235	15
Brandon Marsh PHI CF	386	2.35	.277	12
Jose Siri TB CF	440	2.56	.222	25

You could do a lot worse than Lourdes Gurriel as your fifth outfielder, and the same could be said for Whit Merrifield if he lands with a team that intends to play him every day. Taylor Ward may not have delivered his best-case outcome yet, and Alex Verdugo's is likely coming now that he plays at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, there's power to be had in Hunter Renfroe, Brent Rooker and Joc Pederson and potential batting average help in Jeff McNeil, Brendan Donovan and Charlie Blackmon. You wouldn't want to rely on more than one of these players in a five-outfielder leagues, but having just one isn't such a disaster.