College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Georgia jumps Ohio State for No. 1 as new team enters top four
Jerry Palm takes a crack at how the CFP Rankings should look when they are released Tuesday night
By
Jerry Palm
•
7 min read
The top eight teams in last week's College Football Playoff Rankings won for the second consecutive week. That is unusual stability in the rankings. Even though they all won, I do expect a little shuffling among that group this week with a new No. 1 emerging and a new team taking a spot in the all-important top four.
Of course, this is a warmup act for the warmup act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one. Remember, these rankings do not act like a traditional 25 poll where, as long as a team keeps winning, it is unlikely to get passed. Each set of CFP Rankings gets tossed after it is announced with teams reevaluated from scratch every week.
Before we get to the predicted rankings themselves, here's a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team's ranking beyond their on-field record:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (once decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. when the games are played. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents;" in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
Notice that "game control" is not listed among the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of past committee chairmen. (The CFP does not have a way to measure "game control" -- I've seen the data the committee uses -- but let's not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.) And really, who cares how you get to the win as long as you get there?
With all that in mind, here is how I believe the CFP Rankings will look tonight. Remember: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do this evening.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 |  |
| The Bulldogs won their second straight game over a ranked opponent, this time against top-10 Ole Miss. There is a good case now for Georgia to jump Ohio State for the No. 1 spot in these rankings now that the Bulldogs are starting to stack quality wins. The battle for overall No. 1 will be interesting if Ohio State wins the Big Ten. Last week: 2 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Buckeyes handled Michigan State the way you would expect. It is not the kind of game that does much for a team's strength of schedule, though. This week is only a little better. The Buckeyes get Big Ten West muddler Minnesota, which just gave up 49 points to Purdue. Last week: 1 | |
| 3 |  |
| Michigan put aside the Jim Harbaugh drama and picked up its first win of the season against anyone worth turning on the TV to watch. The Wolverines' win over Penn State was more competitive than its other games, but you never felt like it was in doubt. Last week: 3 | |
| 4 |  |
| Washington picked up second straight win over a ranked opponent in beating Utah. The Huskies now have wins over three ranked teams, two more than Florida State. I predicted this move last week, but it was premature. It is coming eventually, even if not this week. Last week: 5 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Seminoles beat rival Miami at home to keep pace at the top of the standings. They now have a couple of nonconference contests before the ACC Championship Game. This week's is against 3-7 FCS North Alabama. That is a strength of schedule killer. However, Michigan and Washington are the only top-five teams without an FCS opponent. Last week: 4 | |
| 6 |  |
| Oregon found a way to slow down the high-flying USC offense. Still, only scoring 36 points against the Trojans feels like something of an off day offensively. It speaks to Oregon's dominance this season in that this was only its second win by fewer than 14 points. Last week: 6 | |
| 7 |  |
| The Longhorns got some good news and some bad news last week. Quinn Ewers returned from injury to lead a win at TCU. Unfortunately, Jonathan Brooks, the nation's seventh leading rusher, was lost for the season with a knee injury. The committee does not take that into consideration yet. IT will wait and see how Texas performs without Robinson instead of speculating. Last week: 7 | |
| 8 |  |
| Alabama is on a roll. The Crimson Tide smoked Kentucky to clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. If that matchup sounds familiar -- it is the fourth time in the last six seasons that these two will meet for the SEC title. Last week: 8 | |
| 9 |  |
| Louisville is close to an ACC title game appearance after beating Virginia on Thursday. The Cardinals can clinch a spot against Florida State with a win at Miami. Last week: 11 | |
| 10 |  |
| The Rebels got taken to the woodshed by Georgia. Fortunately, that only counts as one loss. Ole Miss could still find its way into the New Year's Six, though, if it wins out and does not drop in these rankings. Last week: 9 | |
| 11 |  |
| The Nittany Lions played Michigan hard, and as they seemingly always do, they lost. Coach James Franklin dropped to 4-16 vs. the Wolverines and Buckeyes. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurich was fired afterwards. Penn State hopes Iowa keeps winning at least until the Big Ten title game because that is its only quality win. Last week: 10 | |
| 12 |  |
| Mizzou throttled Tennessee in a battle for second place in the SEC East. The Tigers are not out of the chase for a New Year's Six spot. You could make something of a case for them to be ahead of Penn State, but I do not expect the committee to make that jump. Last week: 14 | |
| 13 |  |
| The Beavers pounded Stanford, but I still have them slipping a spot in the rankings because Missouri improved their profile enough to make a jump. You'd never see something like this in the top 25 polls. You may not see it from the committee this week, either, but you could. Last week: 12 | |
| 14 |  |
| Welcome back (sort of), Oklahoma. The Sooners have not climbed back it the top 10, but their drubbing of West Virginia -- combined with losses by a few teams ahead of them -- have OU back in a four-way tie for second in the Big 12. It could still get another shot at Texas for the conference title. Last week: 17 | |
| 15 |  |
| The Tigers won big over Florida. This is a fun team to watch. Unfortunately, "fun to watch" is not criteria. A 9-3 finish would get LSU a nice bowl destination. Last week: 19 | |
| 16 |  |
| The Utes came within a touchdown of Washington, but it's still a loss. Despite that, they could move up in the rankings this week due to worse losses by teams ahead of them in last week's rankings. Last week: 18 | |
| 17 |  |
| The Fighting Irish had the week off. They have Wake Forest and Stanford left, so 9-3 and a good ACC bowl game is in play. Last week: 20 | |
| 18 |  |
| Arizona had to wait until the end, but the Wildcats won their fourth straight, this time over Colorado. They can get some juice in the rankings next week as they host Utah. Last week: 21 | |
| 19 |  |
| Iowa won its fourth straight game, this one over Rutgers. The last time an Iowa game saw the teams combine for more points than this was Oct. 7 when the Hawkeyes beat Purdue. You take wins any way you can get them, though. Last week: 22 | |
| 20 |  |
| The Volunteers got run at Mizzou and now get Georgia. It's at home, but still -- yikes. This is a chance to turn the top of college football on its head but too late for Tennessee to take full advantage of it. Last week: 13 | |
| 21 |  |
| The Green Wave has been winning ugly the last few weeks against some of their conference also-rans. Rice, East Carolina and Tulsa have fallen to Tulane by a combined seven points. Tulane needs to get things figured out or somebody will finish the job on them. Last week: 23 | |
| 22 |  |
| The Tar Heels are still alive in the ACC race thanks to a double-overtime win against Duke. The conference title is the only path to the New Year's Six for UNC. Last week: 24 | |
| 23 |  |
| Oklahoma State had a big-time Bedlam hangover. The Cowboys lost at UCF 45-3. That is their third loss, all to unranked teams. OSU does a good job getting up for the big games. It's time to start treating them all like big games. Last week: 15 | |
| 24 |  |
| Kansas was in prime position to take over sole possession of second place in the Big 12 as Oklahoma State was losing, but the Jayhawks instead fell at home to Texas Tech and are now part of the four-way tie. Last week: 16 | |
| 25 |  |
| The Wildcats throttled Baylor and are back in the hunt for a chance to defend their Big 12 crown. Last week: 25 | |
