What did it feel like taking Maryland straight up over Penn State? You see, sometimes when you try to circle the wagons, you circle too hard, so the wagon tips over and catches fire. Oh, and your oxen die. But if our nation's settlers refused to give up each time that happened, I refuse to give up after every moneyline pick goes horribly wrong. Optimism always abounds around here, even when Week 6 lines around college football are ... less than ideal. So, we're going off the radar a bit with some of the choices. 

Each week, I'll give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. But in the spirit of the upset, I generally avoid games where lines are within a touchdown, though there will be some exceptions. Similarly, I'll only go with moneyline picks when the payout is around 2:1 -- maybe a little less, definitely when it's more. 

Week 5 results

ATS: 2-1
SU: 2-1
ML: 0-2

Overall results
ATS: 8-5
SU: 8-5
ML: 2-5

Utah State at No. 5 LSU

When: Saturday, Noon ET | Where: Baton Rouge, Louisiana | Line: LSU -26.5

Why it's listed: Before LSU fans throw a fit, understand this is my long shot. The Tigers are coming off an open week, but I would not be looking ahead to Florida if I were them. Utah State has a track record of playing up for these types of games, and noon kickoffs can mean sleepy favorites. Watching Aggies quarterback Jordan Love is as much fun as you're going to have outside the usual suspects. 

Utah State's key to the game: I don't have tremendous faith the Aggies are going to be able to slow down LSU's passing offense, so there's not much margin for error. Love, as good as he is, will need to play some hero ball and this team needs a couple of breaks because the offense is not the most efficient, either. 

LSU's key to the game: The Tigers plan on utilizing "warp speed" periodically against Utah State's defense -- one step below "ludicrous speed." That's fine as long as the defense can get off the field on third downs. The Tigers defense is so-so in that category (34.43%) and are still nursing some injuries up front. Both teams like to play fast, so getting off the field quickly is important if the drives start mounting.

Pick: LSU is a big home favorite against a decent Group of Five team. The Aggies can make it interesting if they volley back and forth, but they never really pull off the outright upset. ATS: Utah State, SU: LSU 

No. 21 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

When: Saturday, Noon ET | Where: Lubbock, Texas | Line: Oklahoma State -8.5

Why it's listed: It's Jett Duffey time for the Red Raiders. The junior quarterback has had a week to practice with the 1s and now gets to play at home for the first time since Sept. 7. Texas Tech may not have a lot of Lubbock magic at the moment, but they have been tougher at home over the past year. 

Texas Tech's key to the game: Duffey may not be known as a passer first, but he flashed some nice throws against Oklahoma and Tech has length at wideout. Oklahoma State has some physical corners -- A.J. Green is a dawg -- so Duffey the Red Raiders passing attack needs to have its timing down and win some 50/50 balls. 

Oklahoma State's key to the game: Feed. Chuba. Hubbard. He has a FBS-best 938 yards and Texas Tech's run defense is a good matchup for him. 

Pick: I actually like Duffey's potential to move the ball, but the Cowboys have so many weapons of their own and enough defensive playmakers on the back end to escape with a win. ATS: Texas Tech, SU: Oklahoma State 

Boston College at Louisville

When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET | Where: Louisville, Kentucky | Moneyline: Louisville -240, Boston College +200

Why it's listed: That's right! The same Boston College that lost to Kansas! As bad as that was, the Eagles took care of business against Rutgers the following week and actually played well against Wake Forest. Has the defense turned a corner? Louisville doesn't exactly possess the ACC's highest-scoring unit. 

Boston College's key to the game: Without any real pass rush, BC will have to manufacture pressure from other parts of the defense. That may not be a huge deal against the Cardinals, who at this point under first-year coach Scott Satterfield are more reliant on the run. BC showed some success against Wake defensively as that game went on, too. 

Louisville's key to the game: It's one thing to hone in on a stud running back. The Cardinals have already faced Notre Dame's Tony Jones Jr. and Florida State's Cam Akers, both of whom hit 100 yards in their respective games. Now Louisville faces AJ Dillon and David Bailey, with quarterback Anthony Brown to boot. That's a lot to defend, but the Cardinals have to find an answer. 

Pick: There's not a lot separating these teams, and that Kansas loss may have been a wake-up call of sorts for Boston College. The Eagles have quietly played better since then and a 2:1 payout is nice if you think they'll keep trending that way. Boston College +200

Illinois at Minnesota

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Minneapolis, Minnesota | Line: Minnesota -14

Why it's listed: The Gophers are undefeated ... but they've won all four games by no more than a touchdown and every FBS opponent they've played is .500 or worse. Illinois isn't a divisional contender, but they're improved and the gap between the two isn't huge (19 spots, per our own Tom Fornelli). 

Illinois' key to the game: The Illini defense has done a nice job this year of getting into the backfield with 46 tackles for loss and 15 sacks -- that's second and fifth, respectively, in the Big Ten. If that defense travels with a good ground game, Illinois has a shot. 

Minnesota's key to the game: Receiver Rashod Bateman has three 100-yard games and leads the Big Ten in receiving yards per game. He needs to be a difference-maker in third-down situations, where he has six first-down grabs already. 

Pick: Minnesota has the makings of one of those teams whose line between 6-6 and 9-3 is razor thin, so even at home this spread feels large. But, ultimately, the Gophers are good enough to get it done. ATS: Illinois, SU: Minnesota

Oregon State at UCLA

When: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET | Where: Los Angeles, California | Moneyline: UCLA -220, Oregon State +180

Why it's listed: UCLA's comeback win against Washington State remains miraculous, but both teams have regressed to the mean. Last week, Wazzu got clocked by Utah and the Bruins scored only 17 points on 85 plays in a loss to Arizona. As a modest road dog, the Beavers have a shot here. 

Oregon State's key to the game: Ride that ground game with Jermar Jefferson and Artavis Pierce. Jefferson is in his second week back from an ankle injury, but Pierce has done a nice job picking up the slack. If Jefferson is in better shape this week, they'll be a force. 

UCLA's key to the game: At this point, what are we expecting from the Bruins? No one in the Pac-12 has run more plays through five weeks, but they rank 10th in conference at 5.38 yards per play. They're more likely to win in a low-scoring battle than the shootout with Wazzu. 

Pick: Other than one half of football (with plenty of assistance), UCLA remains downtrodden. There are signs of life for Chip Kelly's group, but a quietly improving Oregon State team has a great opportunity to strike. Oregon State +180

So what picks can you make with confidence in Week 6? And which national title contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which college football teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $5,300 in profit over the past four seasons.