College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Ohio State, Michigan should lead top 25 in first release

Getty Images

Happy Halloween! We have a treat coming Tuesday night with the first College Football Playoff Rankings release, though some teams may feel tricked. Adding to the festive feel of tonight's announcement, the rankings will be discussed by new CFP Selection Committee chairman Boo Corrigan, the NC State athletic director.

Of course, this is a warmup act for the warmup act, which is all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one. Remember, these rankings do not act like a traditional 25 poll where, if you keep winning, it is unlikely you will get passed. Each set of CFP Rankings gets tossed after it is announced with teams reevaluated from scratch every week.

Before we get to the predicted rankings themselves, here's a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team's ranking beyond their on-field record:

Strength of schedule
Conference championships (once decided)
Head-to-head
Results vs. common opponents
Results vs. ranked opponents

Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. when the games are played. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents;" in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

Notice that "game control" is not listed among the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of past committee chairmen. (The CFP does not have a way to measure "game control" -- I've seen the data the committee uses -- but let's not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.) And really, who cares how you get to the win as long as you get there?

With all that in mind, here is how I believe the CFP Rankings will look tonight. Remember: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do this evening.

Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.

College Football Playoff Rankings prediction

1	Ohio State
The Buckeyes picked up another good win this week at Wisconsin, and while the Badgers are not in these rankings, they are not far out. The Buckeyes' strength of schedule and quality of wins puts them past Michigan this week.
2	Michigan
The Wolverines had the week off, not that they needed the rest. Their schedule has not been great, but their dominance against that schedule will be too much for the committee to ignore. Above, I detailed the criteria for putting these rankings together. Another item that is not criteria is the NCAA's current investigation into sign stealing at Michigan. It is not the committee's job to adjudicate NCAA infractions. If the NCAA makes a ruling on the Wolverines eligibility for this postseason, the committee will deal with it at that point. Don't hold your breath.
3	Florida State
The Seminoles did to Wake Forest what a team of this caliber should do -- pound them. The 'Noles have played the second-toughest schedule of the undefeated teams at the top of these rankings -- behind only Ohio State -- and there are still some good games remaining against in-state rivals Miami and Florida.
4	Washington
Washington beat Stanford, but the game was in doubt until late. The Huskies have not had a double-digit win since beating Cal 59-32 back on Sept. 23. Washington's finishing schedule is challenging, featuring three teams in these rankings over the final four games.
5	Georgia
The Bulldogs throttled Florida, 43-20, but they are still hamstrung by a poorly rated schedule. Georgia is well outside the top 100 in that metric while the teams above them are in the top 70. The upcoming schedule should help that considerably. The combined records of the Bulldogs' next three opponents is 20-4.
6	Oregon
The Ducks move to the top of the one-loss teams following their 35-6 win at Utah, breaking the Utes' 18-game home winning streak. Other than the loss to Washington, Oregon has been dominant with an average scoring margin of 23.6 points, tied for second with Georgia and 11.2 points behind Michigan. The committee judges dominance without that stat, however. Running up the score is not encouraged.
7	Alabama
Alabama has a good argument for Oregon's spot. The Crimson Tide has played a good schedule with wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee. Despite a strong schedule, all of Alabama's better opponents have visited Tuscaloosa, which is also where the Tide lost to Texas. I have them ahead of the Longhorns this week, but it's possible the committee will not.
8	Oklahoma
The Sooners had a rough day at Kansas, resulting in their first loss of the season. Teams with a loss do not yet control their own fate for the College Football Playoff, but we have yet to have one with four undefeated teams. They do still control their own fate in the Big 12, though.
9	Texas
Steve Sarkisian, campaigning to the committee Monday, pointed out that the Longhorns' win at Alabama is the best win anyone has this season. He is right about that, but the loss to Oklahoma is more important at the moment. Texas, like all of the one-loss teams, has no margin for error when it comes to trying to make the playoff.
10	Penn State
The Nittany Lions looked like they were hungover from the loss to Ohio State when they played Indiana. The Hoosiers had the game tied late before Penn State got a safety and a touchdown to put the game away. PSU gets Maryland this week, which seems to have fallen apart, but Penn State still cannot get caught looking ahead to Michigan.
11	Ole Miss
As predicted last week, the Rebels' strength of schedule took a hit after playing Vanderbilt. They only have a loss at Alabama and have beaten LSU and Tulane. I would not be surprised if they are a little higher ranked.
12	LSU
The Tigers have basically had two weeks off with an actual bye last week and a 62-0 shellacking of Army the week prior. It's all about being as fresh and healthy as possible for the trip to Alabama. If the Tigers win, it will create a three-way tie in the SEC West with the Tide and Ole Miss -- all three teams would have a win and loss among the group.
13	Notre Dame
Notre Dame had a trap game last week at Pitt sandwiched between USC and Clemson. The Fighting Irish did not fall for it, though, obliterating the Panthers, 58-7. I'm sure it helped to have a week off after the USC victory. Clemson has struggled this season but would like nothing more than to ruin Notre Dame's chances at a New Year's Six bowl.
14	Missouri
Mizzou has been one of the more pleasant surprised so far this season jumping out to a 7-1 start. The only blemish so far is a home loss to LSU. The Tigers are lacking the kind of win that gets the committee's attention. That can be resolved this Saturday between the hedges.
15	Louisville
The Cardinals bounced back nicely after laying an egg at Pitt last week with a commanding shutout of Duke. That loss to Pitt is still an anchor on this team's CFP resume, though. An ACC championship is still in play, and Louisville could move into the Orange Bowl as long as they do not lose again before the league title game.
16	Kansas
The Jayhawks picked up their biggest win in quite some time with a victory over previously unbeaten Oklahoma. Kansas had not defeated an AP top 10 team at home since topping the Sooners in 1984. The Jayhawks have a decent chance of finishing 10-2 and getting a spot in one of the top Big 12 bowl games, if not the New Year's Six.
17	Tennessee
Tennessee picked up its best win of the season so far at Kentucky to stay in the SEC East race. The Volunteers trail Missouri by a game and get the tiebreaker with the Tigers when they face off in two weeks.
18	Oregon State
The Beavers took a tough loss at Arizona on Saturday to drop from the group of one-loss teams. It leaves them part of a four-way tie for fourth in the Pac-12 standings. Oregon State has already played the other three teams and is 2-1 against that group, but the Beavers need a lot of help to reach the final Pac-12 title game.
19	Utah
Trying to get by with a stout defense and a limited offense caught up with the Utes against Oregon. The Ducks smashed Utah and its 18-game home winning streak, 35-6. There are no easy games in this league, as Arizona State, this week's opponent showed last week.
20	UCLA
The Bruins stifled Colorado in a 28-16 win. UCLA, like the two teams ahead of it in these rankings, is two games back of Washington in the Pac-12 standings and needs a lot of help to get to the championship game. The Bruins will not get a chance to help themselves, though, because neither Washington nor Oregon are on their schedule.
21	USC
The Trojans won by another bad basketball score last weekend at Cal, holding off the Bears, 50-49. USC may be the only team that can give up 49 points and still have a reasonable chance of winning. The Trojans are still in the conference title hunt, just one game back of Washington, this week's opponent. Oregon awaits next week.
22	Iowa
Hawkeyes fans learned that they do not have to wait to see if its anemic and injury-riddled offense can score enough points to save offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz's job. It was announced Monday that he will not return next season. Despite their offensive woes, the Hawkeyes are still the favorite to win the Big Ten West.
23	Tulane
Like most Group of Five teams, strength of schedule is a problem when trying to get into and stay in these rankings. The Green Wave was able to get Ole Miss to come to their place for a game this season, but they couldn't pull off the upset. Tulane still has a chance to repeat as a New Year's Six participant, but the Mountain West champion will likely be part of that discussion as well.
24	Air Force
The Falcons strength of schedule resides just outside of the bottom 10 of the FBS. Their nonconference schedule is a big problem. It consists of FCS Robert Morris, winless Sam Houston and the other service academies, which are a combined 5-10.
25	Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is in a five-way tie for first in the Big 12 with wins so far over Kansas and Kansas State (if that tiebreaker ever comes into play). Losses to South Alabama at home at at Iowa State are dragging the Cowboys down in these rankings and may keep them out for now. They can erase a lot of ills with a win in Bedlam.