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The 2026 college football transfer portal officially opened Friday, and chaos is an understatement. More than 3,700 Division I scholarship players entered the portal on Day 1, kicking off a flurry of movement that has already reshaped rosters and set off a domino effect across the sport.

This cycle is unique. For the first time, the portal is operating under a condensed 15-day winter window (Jan. 2-16), eliminating the previous spring period and adding rules tied to coaching changes. But this cycle has been simmering for months with agents calling and deals being worked out in advance of the official opening.

Early winners and losers emerged from the first 24 hours, but the final impact won't be clear until the dust settles and all player movement is finalized later this month. Even the most notable exits and arrivals are only part of the picture in a market that could shift dramatically before the window closes.

One of the biggest storylines to watch as this window gets underway: the quarterback market. Visits are already underway, with marquee names like Sam Leavitt and Brendan Sorsby -- the top two players in  Cooper Petagna's 247Sports transfer portal rankings -- drawing serious interest. Their decisions could trigger a scramble for top quarterbacks across the country.

Here's a look at some of the winners and losers from Day 1 of the college football transfer portal window.

Winner: Texas targeting top transfers to surround Arch Manning

Is Texas preparing to go all-in and surround quarterback Arch Manning with top transfer portal talent to make a run next season? The early signs are promising.

Cam Coleman, the former five-star receiver from Auburn and this cycle's top portal wideout, was on campus Friday and is expected back Saturday. Texas A&M and Alabama are also schools to watch, however, per CBS Sports' Chris Hummer.

Isaac Brown, Louisville's star running back and 2024 ACC Rookie of the Year, entered the portal with a "do not contact" tag, signaling a destination is already in focus. The big-time playmaker already has a 247Sports Transfer Portal Crystal Ball pointing to Texas. According to Horns247's Hank South, the Longhorns are targeting two running backs this cycle -- with a potential big-name still to watch.

Texas is also setting up to make moves on the defensive side for the return of coordinator Will Muschamp. Former Florida edge rusher Jayden Woods -- the No. 7 overall transfer prospect in this cycle -- was on campus Friday as well.

If the Longhorns start landing these pieces, they could start reshaping the roster immediately, giving Manning the weapons to turn his second season as Texas' starter into a legitimate run at national championship contention.

Loser: Alabama's post-CFP uncertainty

Coming off its loss to Indiana in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl, Alabama saw its first notable transfer portal movement Friday. While the departures haven't piled up, the timing and names involved are worth noting.

The headliner was former five-star Jaylen Mbakwe, who entered the portal after a season spent transitioning from cornerback to wide receiver. Mbakwe entered the portal last season and Alabama fought to keep him with a package in the neighborhood of seven-figures. All that work was for naught in 2025; Mbakwe was targeted just three times all year. It was wasted money and effort. 

Alabama also saw former four-star running back Richard Young and four-star wide receiver Jalen Hale, the No. 6 receiver in the 2023 class, enter the portal after limited on-field roles.

Layered onto that is uncertainty at quarterback. Ty Simpson, who started the Rose Bowl, suffered a cracked rib in the first half and was pulled in the third quarter, leaving his immediate future unclear (it is believed he needs to receive a Day 1 NFL Draft grade to warrant early entry). 

Alabama does have options waiting in the wings with Austin Mack and Keelon Russell -- both quarterbacks handpicked by Kalen DeBoer -- set to return in 2026. Their presence could further complicate Simpson's standing as the Tide head into a pivotal offseason. Simpson could go pro, though his draft stock is lower than it has been since the preseason, or he could enter the portal. The thought is if Simpson is playing college football in 2026, it will be for somebody else (with the buzz saying to keep an eye on Tennessee or Oregon). 

Individually, none of the moves signal panic. Collectively, they reflect the growing pressure facing coach Kalen DeBoer as Alabama navigates roster management in the immediate aftermath of a disappointing postseason exit. But just as the portal taketh, it also giveth -- the Tide are one of a few schools in the mix for running back transfer Hollywood Smothers, out of NC State, and he is expected to visit this weekend. 

Winner: Indiana trending toward another portal QB hit

Indiana appears positioned to land yet another veteran quarterback from the transfer portal, continuing a trend that has fueled the program's sudden rise under Curt Cignetti. After Kurtis Rourke and this season's Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers are now trending toward TCU transfer Josh Hoover, the No. 9 quarterback in the 247Sports Transfer Portal rankings.

Hoover's connection to Indiana isn't new. The fourth-year junior was originally committed to the Hoosiers in the 2021 cycle before flipping to TCU just days before signing day. His name resurfaced weeks ago when it was first reported he would enter the portal, with Indiana quickly emerging as a serious contender.

The move isn't finalized. CBS Sports' Chris Hummer has noted Kentucky and Missouri are also interested. If Indiana closes the deal, it would mark another significant portal win for Cignetti and further reinforce the program's growing reputation as a landing spot for experienced quarterbacks looking to elevate their careers. Texas reporters believe outgoing wideout Parker Livingstone the (a fringe top-50 portal prospect) would be Indiana-bound if Hoover is, too (the two Texas natives are close). 

Loser: Tennessee reeling from early portal departures

Tennessee entered the transfer portal window knowing attrition was coming, but the early exits still sting -- particularly along the lines of scrimmage. The Volunteers have already seen multiple contributors and former blue-chip prospects depart, thinning depth at several key positions.

The biggest loss comes up front in offensive tackle Lance Heard, who announced his intentions to transfer on New Year's Day. A former five-star prospect who spent one season at LSU before arriving in Knoxville, Heard earned third-team All-SEC honors this season and was expected to anchor the Volunteers' offensive line in 2026. Heard's exit means big-time prospect David Sanders Jr., who played right tackle during his true freshman season, will go man the blindside for whoever starts for the Vols in 2026 (could it be true freshman Faizon Brandon?)

Other notable departures include starting edge rusher Caleb Herring, who appeared in 36 games over three seasons. Tennessee already needed to replace top pass rusher Joshua Josephs, and now faces the challenge of rebuilding a defense under new coordinator Jim Knowles after a unit that took a significant step back in 2025.

Kicker Max Gilbert -- perfect on extra points and 34 of 45 field goals in two seasons -- and four-star offensive tackle Bennett Warren, a top-100 recruit in the 2024 class, are also out. Wide receiver Amari Jefferson, who played just four snaps in 2025, and defensive back Boo Carter, dismissed in November, have departed as well.

While Tennessee still has talent returning, losing Heard and Herring leaves holes on both sides of the line, forcing the Volunteers to scramble for reinforcements in the portal.

Winner: Crystal Ball projections to Penn State point to a fast roster reset

For all the hand-wringing that accompanied Penn State's 58-day coaching search before ultimately landing Matt Campbell, the early transfer portal picture suggests the Nittany Lions may come out of this transition just fine -- if not better positioned than expected.

Penn State currently holds multiple 247Sports Transfer Portal Crystal Ball projections from Iowa State, headlined by Rocco Becht, the No. 8 quarterback in the portal. He's joined by No. 2 portal tight end Benjamin Brahmer, running back Carson Hansen -- who rushed for 1,704 yards and 19 touchdowns over the past two seasons -- four-star Marcus Neal Jr. (the No. 5 safety in the cycle) and wide receiver Karon Brookins. And that group may not be finished, with additional Iowa State visits expected in the coming days.

That potential influx comes amid some real departures in Happy Valley, including tight end Luke Reynolds, quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, starting safety King Mack and defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam. But the volume and caliber of projected additions (don't forget this nucleus played for a Big 12 Championship two seasons ago) point to a roster that could be retooled quickly rather than rebuilt. 

If Penn State is the winner in this equation, Iowa State obviously sits on the other side of it. The Cyclones crossed the 50-departure mark on Day 1 of the portal window -- trailing only Oklahoma State among Power Four programs.

For Penn State, the early returns suggest stability through change.

Loser: Virginia faces major offseason turnover

Coming off a breakthrough season that included a runner-up finish in the ACC Championship Game and flirting with a College Football Playoff berth, Virginia enters the transfer portal window with several notable exits that could slow momentum.

On offense, top receiver Trell Harris and emerging wideout Kameron Courtney are among those leaving, creating more uncertainty in the passing game for 2026. The quarterback room could be impacted depending on whether starter Chandler Morris secures another year of eligibility. Backup Daniel Kaelin is set to return, but the Cavaliers may look to the portal for additional options to maintain competition and depth.

Virginia's defense is also losing key contributors. Starting linebacker Maddox Marcellus, starting nickelback Ja'Son Prevard -- the Cavaliers' interception (3) leader this season -- and former four-star defensive lineman Hunter Osborne have all entered the portal. These departures leave significant gaps in both experience and depth for the Cavaliers' front seven and secondary.

After an 11-win season -- the first time Virginia reached double digits since 1989 -- expectations were high to continue building on that momentum. The early portal exits, however, make the offseason a critical period for the program as it works to reload on both sides of the ball.

One big storyline to watch: QB market could soon scramble

Quarterback is again shaping up as the position to watch in this year's transfer portal. Kentucky has emerged as a surprise contender for Sam Leavitt, the No. 1-ranked portal QB from Arizona State. Wildcats coach Will Stein, who developed NFL-ready quarterbacks at Oregon, could be a major draw. A visit to Lexington is being arranged as Kentucky starts this cycle aggressive, according to CBS Sports' Chris Hummer.

Brendan Sorsby, the 2025 All-Big 12 QB from Cincinnati, is driving the market. Texas Tech has been the front-runner, but LSU and Miami are also making strong pushes. Where Sorsby lands is expected to have a domino effect, as programs scramble for their targets.

The same can be said at Oregon, where Dante Moore's pending NFL Draft decision looms large. Former Nebraska five-star Dylan Raiola has reportedly expressed interest in the Ducks, and his landing spot could be influenced by Moore's choice.

Other top portal quarterbacks like DJ Lagway are drawing interest from multiple programs with Baylor, Louisville, Missouri and Virginia in the mix for the former Florida starter, according to CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz.

The market is moving quickly. Once marquee names like Leavitt and Sorsby commit, teams will have to pivot fast.