Could there be a Fornelli 50 curse developing?
Last week, as I do every week in The Fornelli 50, I singled out a number of teams I felt like writing about. The six teams were Memphis, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arizona State, Wake Forest and Missouri. Do you notice anything that those teams have in common?
Five of them lost over the weekend. Maryland was the only one of the six to emerge from Saturday with a victory. Now, I should point out that the common theme all those teams shared last week were they were teams off to surprising starts -- Mizzou on offense, the rest in the standings -- and that I was skeptical about how long they'd be able to maintain those starts.
Five of them received answers last week.
Does the same future await the five teams I highlight this week? Only the future knows, but before we get there, and before we get to the Fornelli 50, here's a reminder about how these rankings work.
1. My opinion has absolutely nothing to do with the rankings. They are based on a mathematical formula of my creation. So keep this in mind before you call me an idiot, which I know you will.
2. There is true equality to start. The math doesn't play favorites. Before the season begins, defending national champion Alabama is just as good as our defending Bottom 25 champion UCF Knights. The only factor that matters in the rankings is how you've performed on the field in 2016.
3. Wins and losses mean more than anything. I have a lot of different statistics involved, and I factor in strength of schedule (though, remember, everybody begins the season with the same SOS), but at the end of the day whether you won or lost is going to mean more than anything else. Also, just because it's too difficult for me to rank FCS teams as well, my formula doesn't have much respect for FCS schools. If you beat one it won't mean much, and if you lose to one, well, you might show up in The Bottom 25.
4. The formula is in no way predictive. It is based on nothing but what has occurred in the season to this point in time. Just because a team is currently ranked No. 15 does not mean it's better or that it's going to beat a team ranked No. 35. It just means that, to this point, it's been the 15th best team in the country. Think of it as a meritocracy in its purest form. The math plays no favorites.
5. I won't share the formula. I just don't want to. I'm not a mathematician. I know my formula isn't perfect. I don't think a perfect formula can exist, so I don't share it because I don't care what anybody thinks. So don't ask. Just know that, even if you don't agree with it right now, at the end of the season, it's been startlingly accurate.
Now let's assign some numbers to some teams.
1. Ohio State 4-0 (Last week -- 1)
2. Alabama 5-0 (4)
3. Washington 5-0 (8): I've noticed throughout my life, and in my career, that I'm right about things occasionally and wrong far more often. It's through all these times of being wrong that I've learned you need to be able to admit when you were wrong about something, so here goes. I was wrong about you, Washington.
Before the season started, I wrote a Friday Five about the teams I believed were overrated heading into the season. Now, the way I framed it then was based on where teams were ranked in the preseason Coaches Poll, and I put Washington No. 2 on the list because I felt the media as a whole was christening this team a bit too soon. While I had Tennessee a spot ahead of the Huskies, I thought Tennessee was a better team than Washington, but they were still ranked too high at No. 10.
Although I didn't write it, Washington was the one team on that list of five schools that I felt had the best chance of finishing the season not ranked at all, and well, I'm looking like more of an idiot than usual right now.
The fact Washington beat Stanford on Friday night didn't come as a huge shock. I mean, I picked Washington to win the game. The shock was how resounding of a victory it was for the Huskies, as that defense dominated a Stanford offensive line that has been a strength of that program for years.
Now the Huskies will look to get the Oregon monkey off their back -- they haven't beaten the Ducks since 2003 -- this weekend, and should they do that (I believe they will), then they're in the driver's seat in the Pac-12 North and are looking at a legitimate shot to reach the playoff. And I thought they would probably finish 8-4.
4. Michigan 5-0 (3)
5. Louisville 4-1 (2)
6. Miami 4-0 (5)
7. Boise State 4-0 (7)
8. Houston 5-0 (12)
9. Nebraska 5-0 (11)
10. Maryland 4-0 (22)
11. Baylor 5-0 (10)
12. Texas A&M 5-0 (14)
13. Western Michigan 5-0 (24)
14. Tennessee 5-0 (17)
15. Clemson 5-0 (25): This ranking is one of those times that shows the difference between my personal opinion and the formula. If the Fornelli 50 were nothing but my own personal rankings, Clemson would be top four. I mean, how could it not be after beating Louisville on Saturday night?
But it's not. It's the formula's decision, and the formula just really isn't a huge fan of what Clemson has done so far. As you can see by last week's ranking of No. 25, the Tigers jump 10 spots after beating the Cardinals, but the formula has just been down on Clemson all year long.
And I get it. Unlike you and I, who came into the season thinking Clemson was going to compete for an ACC title and a playoff spot with the Heisman Trophy favorite in Deshaun Watson, the formula sees a team that may be 5-0, but it's also a team that's only beaten one of the four FBS opponents its played by more than one score.
The Tigers just haven't been a dominant team, and if you look at the teams ranked at the top of these rankings, they have been. Even Louisville remained in the top five following the loss because of what it did in all its other games.
The good news for Clemson is that the offense finally seemed to find that gear it had been missing in the win over Louisville, and should it continue going forward, it'll likely keep climbing.
16. Florida 4-1 (15)
17. Air Force 4-0 (18)
18. Army West Point 3-1 (19)
19. Colorado 4-1 (37): I've been avoiding writing about Colorado in these rankings all season long. They dropped out for a week following the loss to Michigan, but in every other week of The Fornelli 50, they've been here and I've been too scared to say anything. I'm like that 13-year-old boy with a crush on the prettiest girl in school, but I don't want to tell her because what if she doesn't like me?
I'm smitten, you guys. I am enamored with this Colorado team, and I have been since its first game of the season against Colorado State. The reason I've avoided writing this is just the silly, superstitious fear that by sharing these feeling with the public, I will ruin what Colorado has going on. But I must be brave.
I must let the world know that I am fully here for the 2016 Colorado Buffaloes. They're in first place in the Pac-12 South right now, and while I'm not going to sit here and tell you they'll win the division, I firmly believe they'll be in the hunt all year long. Mike MacIntyre's offense is finally coming along in his fourth season, but the biggest difference is on the other side of the ball, where the hire of Jim Leavitt is paying huge dividends.
This was a Colorado defense that in 2014 allowed 461 yards per game, which caused MacIntyre to go out and get Leavitt last year. We saw some immediate improvement, as the Buffaloes allowed 416.9 yards per game last year. Well, through five games this year, the Buffs defense is allowing 290.4 yards per game. There is no Pac-12 defense allowing less. Not Washington, not Utah, not Stanford, not anybody.
And if it continues, don't be surprised when Jim Leavitt's name comes up in coaching searches this winter. Yes, the way he left South Florida was ugly, and shouldn't be forgotten, but if Art Briles is going to be mentioned for jobs this year, there's no reason Leavitt doesn't deserve a second chance as well.
20. South Florida 4-1 (28)
21. Memphis 3-1 (6)
22. Wisconsin 4-1 (13)
23. West Virginia 4-0 (27)
24. Indiana 3-1 (29)
25. Troy 4-1 (42)
26. Virginia Tech 3-1 (23)
27. Southern Miss 4-1 (41)
28. Auburn 3-2 (46): You ever get the feeling you're about to open yourself up to a world of hurt, but you can't stop yourself from doing it anyway? Because I get the feeling I'm about to do that right now. I think Auburn's turned the corner.
I know, I know, it's stupid on the surface to say that. I mean, I'm basing this off of the last two weeks in which the Tigers barely managed to beat LSU -- a game that got Les Miles fired, and could have been the end of Gus Malzahn had things gone the other way -- and a 58-7 romp over Louisiana-Monroe. Seriously, trying to take too much out of those two games is probably not something you want to do, but I can't help the fact that I feel this way.
Auburn just seems more consistent right now. The defense is, has been and will continue to be the strength of this team, even if it's not a unit I would consider elite -- even if it has some amazing talent. On offense, I see a team that's finally starting to settle in to what it can do, or at least what it should do. It's finding an identity, and considering the multiple personalities it was showing to start the season, that's a very good thing.
I'm not saying Auburn is a contender in the SEC West because it's not. I just don't think this is a team that's going to finish at the bottom of the division, either, and be it Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, or maybe even Alabama, it's gonna get somebody. You'll see.
29. NC State 3-1 (39)
30. North Carolina 4-1 (36)
31. Toledo 3-1 (9)
32. UCLA 3-2 (47)
33. Stanford 3-1 (16)
34. Arkansas 4-1 (40)
35. Middle Tennessee 4-1 (50)
36. Iowa 3-2 (21): It was Sept. 6, 2016. Iowa was fresh off a 45-21 win over Miami (Ohio) to start the season, and had won 13 of its last 15 games. It was an Iowa team that came up one defensive stand short of a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth, and the future was looking bright. What better time in the world to sign your coach to a 10-year deal through 2026?
Never say Kirk Ferentz doesn't have good timing, because since signing that extension, things haven't gone very well. The Hawkeyes killed Iowa State, sure, but they followed that up with a loss to North Dakota State at home. The next week Iowa had an embarrassing performance -- losing to North Dakota State isn't good, but it is no where close to embarrassing -- against Rutgers, winning 14-7 in an ugly, ugly game.
This week, the Hawkeyes returned home and lost to Northwestern. Yes, that's right, after losing to an FCS team earlier this season, Iowa lost to a team that also lost to an FCS team. By the transitive property, Iowa has already been eliminated from the FCS playoffs and it's only Oct. 4.
It's been a bad month to be a Hawkeye, but I'm not writing this team off by any means. With games against both Wisconsin and Nebraska in Iowa City remaining on the schedule, they can still win the West. The problem is Michigan is sandwiched between those games, as are four road games, so there's not much room for error here.
37. TCU 3-2 (20)
38. Texas Tech 3-1 (NR)
39. Ole Miss 3-2 (NR)
40. California 3-2 (NR)
41. LSU 3-2 (NR)
42. Utah 4-1 (26)
43. Temple 3-2 (NR)
44. Minnesota 3-1 (32)
45. Arizona State 4-1 (34)
46. Wake Forest 4-1 (38)
47. San Diego State 3-1 (30)
48. Tulsa 3-1 (NR)
49. Ohio 3-2 (NR)
50. Mississippi State 2-2 (45)
No Longer Ranked: Kansas State, Navy, Texas, Central Michigan, Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky, Missouri
