College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2022: Computer simulation backing Florida, Louisville

SportsLine's advanced computer model has revealed its top Week 1 college football picks

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 3, 2022 at 11:10 am ET • 3 min read

Getty Images

No. 20 Kentucky is ranked in the preseason polls for just the fifth time in school history and for the first time since 1978, so expectations are high for the Wildcats, who finished in second place in the SEC East with a 10-3 record last season. They are going to be without star running back Chris Rodriguez in their opener against Miami (OH) on Saturday night during the Week 1 college football schedule, though. Rodriguez was one of several players suspended indefinitely by head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats are still 15-point favorites in the latest Week 1 college football odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 54.

Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns last season, and his absence is certainly playing a role in the Week 1 college football spreads. Who should you back in that game, and which other Week 1 college football bets have value? Before locking in any Week 1 college football picks for those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 1

One of the college picks the model is high on in Week 1: Florida (+2.5) covers at home against No. 7 Utah at 7 p.m. ET. The Utes put together a strong 2021 campaign, but they lost two of their first three games before winning nine of 10 down the stretch. They are facing a Florida team that is led by star quarterback Anthony Richardson, who is going to give Utah trouble throughout this game.

First-year head coach Billy Napier brought his top running back and top offensive lineman with him from Louisiana, giving the Gators a nice boost. Utah struggled away from home last year, losing at BYU, at San Diego State and at Oregon State. The Utes are likely going to struggle with the noise and humidity at the Swamp on Saturday night, so the model recommends backing the Gators as home underdogs since they stay within the spread almost 60% of the time.

Another prediction: Louisville (-5) covers on the road against Syracuse at 8 p.m. ET. The Cardinals have an outstanding offense, led by dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham. He is playing behind an offensive line that returns four starters who paved the way in a 41-3 blowout when these teams met last season.

Louisville has been dominant for the past decade in this series, winning and covering the spread in seven of the last eight meetings. Syracuse has not been holding up against conference foes of late, winning just twice in its last 15 ACC contests. The Cardinals have a deep group of running backs as well, so they will be able to control the pace of this game from start to finish. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for Week 1

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 1, and it's calling for multiple outright upsets. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which favorites will go down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,600 in profit over the past six-plus seasons, and find out.