College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Ohio State slides into top four after Michigan State upset
Jerry Palm provides his prediction for how the CFP Rankings will look Tuesday night
By
Jerry Palm
•
9 min read
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee gave us their first top 25 for the 2021 season last week, and while most did not agree with all of the rankings, it is their opinion that matters. There has already been quite a bit of movement as eight of the teams ranked last week lost, and seven of those losses came to unranked teams.
The four teams projected to drop out of the rankings: No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 18 Kentucky, No. 20 Minnesota and No. 23 Fresno State.
Here is the criteria that committee members consider when building the CFP Rankings each week:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (once decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents". In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
There are also criteria that are not specifically listed and will likely never be said out loud by anyone. Those include things like margin of victory. Teams cannot always control their strength of schedule, but they can take strides to make up for a weak one by dominating the opponents they do face.
Also, game control is back! Actually, it never went away, but it's doubtful we will ever hear that term again. Regardless, when the committee chairman is mentioning halftime scores, like Gary Barta did when talking about the North Carolina-Notre Dame game last week, then you know game control is a thing. It is better to build an early lead than a late one, even if the result is the same. (There is no game control statistic. It is strictly an eye test.)
With that in mind, here is how I expect the CFP Rankings to look upon their second release Tuesday night. These rankings remain heavy with SEC and Big Ten teams as they have yet to weed each other out, which should happen over the final few weeks of the season.
Note: This prediction is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final projection for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 |  |
| Georgia's roll shows no signs of stopping. The Bulldogs throttled Missouri, 43-6. This one is easy for the committee. It gets harder after this. Last week: 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Crimson Tide struggled mightily at home with LSU but managed to hang on for a 20-14 win. Alabama rushed for only 6 yards. Do not adjust your monitor, you read that correctly. I do not think the committee would view that as running the ball effectively. Fortunately for Alabama, the teams chasing them in the rankings were not much better. Last week: 2 | |
| 3 |  |
| The Ducks got a fight from Washington but came away with a 26-16 win. It was an eight-point game with just under 2 minutes to go when the Huskies snapped the ball out of the end zone on an ill-advised punt attempt. The Ducks figure to be big favorites again this week against Washington State. Last week: 4 | |
| 4 |  |
| The Buckeyes weren't sharp at Nebraska but managed a 26-17 win. Ohio State's strength of schedule gap between itself and Oregon actually widened a little this week, just not enough to overcome the head-to-head result quite yet. Purdue, the nemesis of top ranked teams this season, visits Saturday. Last week: 5 | |
| 5 |  |
| Speaking of the Spoilermakers, Michigan State became the latest top-five victim of Purdue, taking a substantial 40-29 rod loss. This does not hurt the Spartans too badly, though. A 12-1 finish would still put them in the CFP, but their margin for error is now gone. They do not figure to fall too far this week because Michigan is their floor in the rankings. Last week: 3 | |
| 6 |  |
| The Wolverines spanked Indiana and that will probably be enough to push them past Cincinnati in this week's rankings. They now have a similar performance against a common opponent with the Bearcats, who also beat the Hoosiers this season. The strength of schedule difference between the two teams is enormous. Last week: 7 | |
| 7 |  |
| The Bearcats struggled to beat an opponent they should have dominated for the third straight week. No team in these rankings needs style points more than Cincinnati, but it just has not been able to muster them. To make matters worse, SMU lost at Memphis. The Bearcats end the regular season with the Mustangs but do not play the Tigers. Cincinnati does not need any more damage to its strength of schedule. It needs to turn things up on the scoreboard right now if it is serious about making a run at the top four. Last week: 6 | |
| 8 |  |
| The Sooners looked good sitting around on their couches and watching games on TV this week. They were off in advance of an important stretch run, beginning with a game at Baylor. They play Iowa State at home after that and finish the regular season at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma can move up quickly if it keeps winning. Last week: 8 | |
| 9 |  |
| The Fighting Irish handled Navy pretty easily, but that is just another mediocre team on what has turned out to be a disappointing schedule. Wisconsin has rallied to make Notre Dame's win over the Badgers look better, and who knows how Purdue will finish? There is not enough otherwise to make a push for the playoff. Last week: 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| The Aggies completed the state of Alabama sweep with a 20-3 win over Auburn. They have rebounded well since the injury to starting quarterback Hynes King. Zach Calzada continues to do a great job leading Texas A&M, and it is in a good position for a run at a New Year's six game. The game at Ole Miss this week will have a lot to say about that. Last week: 14 | |
| 11 |  |
| The Cowboys were impressive at West Virginia. Oklahoma State is in the driver's seat for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, though the Cowboys would lose a tiebreaker with Iowa State if it came to that. Last week: 11 | |
| 12 |  |
| Ole Miss stepped out of conference and beat Liberty (and former coach Hugh Freeze). It is not the kind of game that moves the needle with the committee, but the Rebels do host Texas A&M this week. That game will have give the winner a good shot at a New Year's Six bowl game. Last week: 16 | |
| 13 |  |
| The Demon Deacons finally found an opponent that could hang with them in a shootout. North Carolina traded punches with Wake Forest all afternoon before prevailing, 58-55. This was a nonconference game that the teams arranged to play when the ACC did not have them scheduled to face one another. That means Wake Forest still has a one-game lead in the ACC Atlantic over NC State. Last week: 9 | |
| 14 |  |
| The Tigers took it on the chin at Texas A&M in the only game between two teams in last week's CFP Rankings. Auburn has played one of the tougher schedules this season, which is why it is still this high in the rankings. The Tigers still have their biggest challenge ahead, but that is a problem for another day. First, they host Mississippi State. Last week: 13 | |
| 15 |  |
| The Badgers have been the hottest and most dominant team in the Big Ten since the addition of running back Braelon Allen to the starting lineup. Wisconsin has won five in a row since Allen took over as he's rushed for 122 yards per game with five touchdowns. Georgia may be the dominant defense in college football, but Wisconsin is right on its heels. Last week: 21 | |
| 16 |  |
| Baylor took one on the chin this week in a 30-28 loss at TCU. It was the Horned Frogs' first game in 22 years without coach Gary Patterson. The Bears have already lost to Oklahoma State, so it is an upward climb to the Big 12 title game. However, they host Oklahoma this week, and a win there makes that climb a lot less steep. Last week: 12 | |
| 17 |  |
| The Cougars routed Idaho State. Nothing good can come from a game like that. They will now travel to Georgia Southern before trying for their fourth Pac-12 South win at USC. Last week: 15 | |
| 18 |  |
| The Wolfpack beat Florida State to remain a game back of Wake Forest in the ACC Atlantic. That race could be all but decided this week when NC State travels to Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to face the Demon Deacons with first place on the line. Last week: 19 | |
| 19 |  |
| The Hawkeyes managed a lackluster 17-12 win at Northwestern. Alex Padilla replaced Spencer Petras at quarterback late in the first quarter and provided a bit of a spark to the offense. Iowa will try to stay part of the pile atop the Big Ten West when it faces Minnesota this week in what figures to be an old-school Big Ten rock fight. Last week: 22 | |
| 20 |  |
| The Razorbacks probably should have been in the rankings last week, at least ahead of Mississippi State. Well, they rendered that argument moot with a 31-28 win over the Bulldogs. Arkansas has now played five games against teams in the initial CFP Rankings. Last week: NR | |
| 21 |  |
| Purdue has matched Arkansas in number of games against teams in last week's rankings. Both are 2-3 against those teams. Purdue beat previously undefeated Michigan State behind 536 yards passing from Aidan O'Connell. It's been a weird season for the Boilermakers with two wins over top five teams but losses at home to Minnesota and Wisconsin. That loss to the Golden Gophers could keep Purdue out of the rankings if the committee feels like they must have Minnesota ahead of the Purdue but cannot find room for it in the rankings. Last week: NR | |
| 22 |  |
| Pitt was something of a surprise in last week's rankings given its poor strength of schedule and mediocre losses. However, the 54-29 win over Duke should not knock the Panthers out. Last week: 25 | |
| 23 |  |
| The Aztecs got out of Hawaii with a 17-10 win, and I'm sure they are happy to take it. Fresno State was ahead of SDSU in last week's rankings after defeating the Aztecs the week before last, but the Bulldogs lost at home to Boise State and will surely drop out of the top 25. They face Nevada for first place in the division. Last week: 24 | |
| 24 |  |
| The Nittany Lions have put a stop to their three-game losing streak with a solid win at Maryland. This is the seventh Big Ten team I have listed in the projected rankings for this week. We will see if PSU can stick here. The Nittany Lions host Michigan on Saturday. Last week: NR | |
| 25 |  |
| The Cyclones would be in great shape if not for a loss at West Virginia two weeks ago. Even still, they have a shot at a spot in the Big 12 title game due to a tiebreaker with Oklahoma State. However, the Cyclones, like Oklahoma State and Baylor, still have to face Oklahoma before the regular season runs out. Last week: NR | |
