College football odds, picks Week 9: Proven model loving No. 9 Notre Dame

SportsLine simulated every Week 9 college game 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results

Week 9 in college football will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

No. 9 Notre Dame is favored by seven against No. 14 N.C. State, No. 3 Georgia is favored by 13.5 in a neutral-site game against Florida and No. 2 Penn State is a 6.5-point underdog on the road against No. 6 Ohio State in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many college football odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model turned in double-digit profitable weeks in college football last season across all picks, including a remarkable 18-4 run straight up to open the season. Anyone who followed it during those weeks profited big. And it's fresh off a profitable week in which it called underdog Memphis winning outright on the road at Houston and Penn State easily covering the spread against Michigan.

This week, the model simulated every Top 25 game, plus the rest of the slate, and the results were surprising.

The model is loving Notre Dame, projecting a 36-20 victory and cover over NC State. Notre Dame, 6-1 against the spread this season, is covering 7.5 points in 66 percent of the simulations SportsLine ran and winning 79 percent of the time.

Another team the model loves: Kentucky, which faces a Tennessee Volunteers team that will be without running back John Kelly, its top play-maker on offense. Kelly was suspended for the game after being cited for marijuana possession. The Wildcats are favored by five, but SportsLine's simulations say they'll cruise to a 28-18 win and cover in what could be the last stand for Vols head coach Butch Jones.

One huge shocker: No. 16 Michigan State, a 2.5-point favorite on the road against Northwestern, loses outright 20-19 to the Wildcats. The Spartans have won four straight games by just one score, and the model says this is the week they finally get burned. Don't let Michigan State's 5-2 record against the spread fool you.

Another stunner: No 4 TCU (-6.5) barely escapes with a victory against Iowa State to keep their undefeated season alive. The Cyclones have been one of the biggest surprises of the season, and the model projects that they'll provide a major scare for the Horned Frogs in a 25-24 thriller. The over-under has fallen all the way from 53.5 to 48 in this game, so grab the Over while you can.

The model is also calling for a Top 10 team with championship hopes to go down in flames, putting a huge dent in their playoff odds going forward.

What college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? Check out the college football odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the huge Penn State-Ohio State game is a virtual lock, all from the model that turned in double-digit winning weeks last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.

Penn State at Ohio State (-6.5, 56.5)
Georgia vs Florida (+13.5, 43.5)
TCU at Iowa State (+6.5, 48.5)
Wisconsin at Illinois (+26, 49)
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-14, 49)
Miami at North Carolina (+20, 54)
NC State at Notre Dame (-7, 58.5)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-20, 73.5)
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (+7.5, 73.5)
UCLA at Washington (-17.5, 59.5)
Duke at Virginia Tech (15.5, 48.5)
Washington State at Arizona (+3, 64.5)
Michigan State at Northwestern (+2.5, 40.5)
Houston at South Florida (-11, 56.5)
USC at Arizona State (+3.5, 59)