College Football Playoff odds, bracket: Ole Miss, Missouri, Indiana, Memphis deliver signature wins in Week 4

Here's how the College Football Playoff bracket looks after Week 4 of the 2025 college football season

By Chinmay Vaidya

Sep 22, 2025 at 9:53 am ET • 3 min read

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Week 4 of the 2025 college football season introduced more contenders for the College Football Playoff, with four teams gaining major traction in their quest to reach the postseason bracket. The Ole Miss Rebels easily handled a pesky Tulane Green Wave team despite missing starting quarterback Austin Simmons, while the Missouri Tigers made enough plays late against LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina Gamecocks to take back the Mayor's Cup. The Tigers have a non-conference game against UMass in Week 5, while the Rebels prepare for one of the most important Magnolia Bowl games in recent memory when they host the LSU Tigers.

Everyone thought Illinois would be in 2025 what Indiana was in 2024, dismissing the Hoosiers as contenders this season. That changed Saturday night in Bloomington when Curt Cignetti's squad routed the Illini 63-10 in one of the biggest statement games of the year. The Hoosiers take on Iowa before getting a bye week ahead of a massive game against Oregon on Oct. 11.

It looked like Memphis' bid to be the Group of Five representative in the playoff would end Saturday, but the Tigers rallied in the second half to down Arkansas 32-31 in a banner game for the program. Memphis scored a touchdown just before halftime to cut the deficit to 28-17. The Tigers scored the game's final 15 points and forced a key turnover with Arkansas in field goal range to effectively seal the win. Head coach Ryan Silverfield is seeking his third straight double-digit win season at Memphis and now has the Tigers in the CFP conversation with a manageable schedule the rest of the way. The Tigers' home game on Oct. 25 against South Florida likely determines who makes the playoff.

Here's a look at the latest College Football Playoff odds after Week 4's results and how the potential bracket looks when projecting future results.

College Football Playoff odds (via FanDuel)

Ohio State (-750 to make, +490 to miss)
Penn State (-325 to make, +250 to miss)
Indiana (+180 to make, -225 to miss)
Illinois (+2500 to make, OTB to miss)
Michigan (+390 to make, -550 to miss)
Oregon (-320 to make, +245 to miss)
Georgia (-290 to make, +225 to miss)
LSU (-144 to make, +118 to miss)
Ole Miss (+134 to make, -164 to miss)
Missouri (+300 to make, -400 to miss)
Oklahoma (+114 to make, -140 to miss)
Texas (-164 to make, +134 to miss)
Texas A&M (+132 to make, -162 to miss)
Alabama (+118 to make, -144 to miss)
Georgia Tech (+184 to make, -230 to miss)
Florida State (+198 to make, -250 to miss)
Miami (-300 to make, +235 to miss)
Iowa State (+440 to make, -650 to miss)
Notre Dame (+235 to make, -300 to miss)
Memphis (+340 to win AAC championship)

The Big Ten and SEC will sort things out on the field as early as next week. Oregon vs. Penn State, LSU vs. Ole Miss and Alabama vs. Georgia will all impact the playoff. The Crimson Tide start an important three-game stretch against Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri. If they lose two of those three games, that'll likely be the end of their playoff hopes.

Florida State will need to avoid looking past Virginia on Friday in Week 5 ahead of a big ACC showdown against Miami in Week 6. The Seminoles and Hurricanes suddenly have little resistance in the ACC with Clemson losing to Syracuse. Dabo Swinney's Tigers are likely out of the CFP conversation with their third loss, and now the focus shifts to a coach who has struggled to adapt to the new college football landscape with the transfer portal and NIL funds.

Three teams to keep an eye on going forward are Georgia Tech, Iowa State and Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets and Cyclones don't have a daunting road, but even one loss is likely to jeopardize their CFP hopes. Iowa State has slightly more margin for error given the lack of other contenders in the Big 12. The Irish cannot afford any slippage, and although they'll be favored in each game, they've got some challenges on the schedule. Boise State looks less threatening, but Arkansas, NC State and USC are no pushovers.