Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke vs. North Carolina takes on extra weight; Big 12 pack aims to avoid cutline
Bubble teams from around the country will also need deep conference tournament runs
By
Jerry Palm
•
5 min read
Thursday was a rough night for bubble teams, especially those in the Big Ten. Michigan, Rutgers and Wisconsin all lost -- with the Scarlet Knights feeling the sting the most courtesy of a one-point loss to Minnesota, the last-placed team in the Big Ten. Leading by 10 with 1:15 to go, Rutgers allowed the Golden Gophers to rally for a 75-74 win.
That's keeping with Rutgers' season so far: The Knights are below .500 in Quad 1 and Quad 3 games, but one game above that mark vs. Quad 2.
Michigan lost in double-overtime at Illinois, which was arguably the best loss of the three because it was on the road against a good team. Wisconsin lost at home to Purdue, which is its sixth home loss of the season. Flip two of those and we are having a very different conversation about the Badgers.
This is the final regular-season chance for everyone on this list. It's not the last chance to make a good impression on the committee because the conference tournaments are ahead. However, for a few of these teams, it may come down to having to win their respective tournaments.
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on résumé: 20 | Bids secured: 0 | At-large spots remaining: 36
| Conference | Locks | Teams |
|---|---|---|
ACC | 2 | |
Big East | 3 | |
Big Ten | 2 | |
Big 12 | 4 | |
Pac-12 | 2 | |
SEC | 3 | |
1 | ||
Others | 3 |
On the cutline
| Last Four In | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 20-10 | 43 |
| Rutgers | 18-12 | 38 |
| Penn State | 18-12 | 57 |
| Michigan | 17-13 | 54 |
| First Four Out | Record | NET |
| Wisconsin | 16-13 | 77 |
| Oklahoma State | 16-14 | 47 |
| North Carolina | 19-11 | 44 |
| Arizona State | 20-10 | 63 |
| Next Four Out | Record | NET |
| Utah State | 23-7 | 22 |
| New Mexico | 21-9 | 46 |
| Clemson | 21-9 | 64 |
| Oregon | 17-13 | 48 |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Saturday's "Double Bubble" games
Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt
8:30 p.m. | SEC Network, fuboTV (try for free)
 | |
| Mississippi State is trying to stay on the right side of the cut line. The Bulldogs were swept by Alabama and Tennessee as part of a 4-7 record against Quad 1 teams. Their soft nonconference schedule is not helping. | |
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| Vanderbilt is new to the bubble after beating Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Commodores cannot afford to lose at home and will probably have to make a run in the SEC Tournament as well. They are 4-9 against Quad 1 and have three bad losses. | |
Boise State at Utah State
9 p.m.
 | |
| Boise State has yet to beat one of the better teams in the Mountain West away from home, and this is its last chance to do so. A win would put the Broncos above .500 against Quad 1 teams -- and more comfortably in the field. | |
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| Utah State has yet to pick up a Quad 1 win this season. It isn't unheard of to get into the NCAA Tournament without one, but nobody has heard of it since Georgia in 2015. | |
Arizona State at USC
11 p.m. | FS1, fuboTV (try for free)
 | |
| The Sun Devils have two pretty good wins at Arizona and against Creighton on a neutral court, but they also have seven losses to teams that aren't tournament-caliber. One of those is an ugly Quad 4 loss to Texas Southern. | |
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| USC won the first meeting in Tempe, and it remains the Trojans' second best win (after UCLA). The Trojans have at least one loss in each of the quadrants and could stand some higher quality wins; however, Arizona State is only a Quad 2 team at home. | |
Other bubble teams in action Saturday
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| At Baylor, 12 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) – Iowa State has lost eight of its last ten and just kicked its top 3-point shooter, Caleb Grill, off the team. The Cyclones better hope this is addition by subtraction; if this slide goes two games further, they could be on the outside looking in. | |
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| Vs. Kansas State, 2 p.m. -- West Virginia was a whisper away from beating Kansas on the road last week, but managed to knock off Iowa State. The Mountaineers are just 5-12 against Quad 1 teams and 11-13 vs. the top three quadrants. A win here could give them a little breathing room entering the Big 12 Tournament, but two wins would be even better. | |
 | |
| Vs. Tennessee, 2 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) – This story here is that Auburn desperately needs a win over the Volunteers because the Tigers are just 2-9 against Quad 1 teams. But it is also about Tennessee playing its first game without point guard Zakai Zeigler, who is out for the rest of the year with a knee injury. Since it would still be a quality win and one they desperately need, it would count the same either way for the Tigers. | |
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| Vs. Stanford, 4 p.m. | CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (Free) – Oregon needs one more big win, but it's not going to get one here. The Ducks will have to wait for the Pac-12 Tournament to get more. In the meantime, they cannot afford to get swept by the Cardinal. | |
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| At Texas Tech, 6 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) – The Cowboys have fallen off the bracket due to a five-game losing streak that's dropped 'em to barely above .500 (16-14). They will need to play .500 ball the rest of the way to get any consideration at all. If they lose at Texas Tech, that means at least two Big 12 Tournament wins are a must. | |
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| Vs. Duke, 6:30 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) – North Carolina is looking for a second Quad 1 win after getting its first against Virginia last week. I doubt the Tar Heels will get in with just one, and two may not even be enough against eight or nine losses. A loss here means they need to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament just to get another shot at a Quad 1 win. | |
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| Vs. Notre Dame, 8 p.m. | ACC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) – The Tigers played one of the worst nonconference schedules of anyone under consideration, and it is dragging their résumé. It does not help that they have at least two losses in each quadrant. It is hard to make up for four bad losses, and beating Notre Dame will not fix anything. | |
All references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends refer only to tournaments going back to 1994 with the exception of 2021. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.
