10 ranked teams with the most to prove on their NCAA Tournament resumes
Rankings can be deceiving at this point in the year, and for some, signature wins are lacking
By
Jerry Palm
•
5 min read
The AP Top 25 certainly has its share of teams that are already quite accomplished early in the season. However, it also has its share of teams that are in the rankings either because they were there in there from thw beginning and haven't done anything to fall out, or voters were impressed with their records despite them not really having done a whole lot to merit their rankings yet.
Here is a list of 10 teams that enter conference play this week that still have something to prove as far as their NCAA Tournament resume. I'm not necessarily saying these teams are overrated or that they won't eventually put together seasons that are more indicative of these rankings. These teams may very well be as good as their rankings, but as of now, we're basing that mostly on faith.
No. 25 Florida (9-3)
The Gators have had an unusual schedule. They just played their first home game on Dec. 21st against Little Rock. Remodeling of the Exactech Arena/O'Connell Center lingered into December, forcing Florida to start the season with nine neutral-site games and two road games. That is good for a team's computer rankings if the ranking cares about game location, as most do. The Gators lost to Duke, Gonzaga and Florida State, the three best teams they played. They have wins over Seton Hall and Miami. Those figure to be borderline tournament teams at best.
No. 24 Notre Dame (10-2)
There have been chances for the Irish, to be sure. They had a big lead over Purdue at the Crossroads Classic in Indianapolis, but blew it and lost. They also played Villanova tough a week before. They came up short then too, so quality wins are lacking. Notre Dame has beaten Northwestern and Colorado. Maybe one of those teams will play their way in, although it should be noted that Northwestern has never made the tourney.
No. 23 Cincinnati (10-2)
The Bearcats got a lot of attention for a road win at Iowa State, but the Cyclones have yet to prove that they are anywhere near as good as their preseason ranking. At the moment, that's all Cincinnati has to hang its hat on. Their losses came to Butler and Rhode Island.
No. 22 USC (13-0)
There are six undefeated teams left in college basketball this season and USC is the lowest ranked of those in the AP Top 25. The Trojans' best wins came over SMU at home and at Texas A&M. Maybe those will be tournament teams, but that is far from a sure thing. If you include Wyoming, then USC has beaten the top three teams in the RPI that it has played by a total of 10 points, and the win over the Cowboys went to overtime. If those teams are testing the Trojans, you have to wonder how they will fare against better opposition. We won't have to wait long for an answer to that. USC is at Oregon on Friday.
No. 21 Oregon (10-2)
Speaking of Oregon, the Ducks suffered a bit early while star Dillon Brooks sat out with an injury, and unfortunately, their best chance for a quality win came during that time. Baylor blew them out, and they also lost to Georgetown in a game in which Brooks played sparingly. Entering Pac-12 action, Oregon's best win is an annihilation of Valparaiso. The Ducks host UCLA on Wednesday and USC on Friday, so there is an early chance to make a statement in league play.
No. 19 Saint Mary's (10-1)
The Gaels were favored by some to win the West Coast conference, and they may still, but they haven't done much in non-conference play to put together an at-large tournament resume if they need one. They won at Dayton, which may turn out better than it looks right now, but that's about it. St. Mary's has only lost once so far, but that came at home to Sun Belt favorite UT Arlington. The difference between the Gaels and every other team on this list is that they can't do much to help themselves in conference play. A loss to anyone but Gonzaga is damaging and the games against the Zags are the only chances to pick up quality wins. So, for now, they need to rely on the Flyers, Stanford and Nevada to play up in their respective leagues.
No. 18 Arizona (11-2)
Like many of the teams on this list, the Wildcats have played a couple good teams, but lost to both of them. They fell victim to Gonzaga and Butler in a couple of closely fought, neutral-court contests. They do have wins over Texas A&M and Michigan State, but both of those teams have under-performed so far. Each could rebound in conference play though.
No. 17 Xavier (10-2)
The Musketeers have a gaudy RPI thanks in large part to having played only one game against a team below 200 in those rankings. However, they got beat pretty soundly at Baylor and lost at Colorado. Xavier's best wins are over middle-of-the-pack ACC teams Wake Forest and Clemson. Those wins look better now than they likely will as those teams go through the rigors of conference play. Xavier will play Georgetown, Villanova and Butler on the road before the middle of January, so we will find out soon if the Musketeers are for real.
No. 14 Wisconsin (11-2)
Wisconsin was the preseason pick to win the Big Ten and is still the league's highest-ranked team despite a general lack of accomplishment so far. The Badgers lost to Creighton and North Carolina, the two best teams they have played. Their only win of any substance at all came over Georgetown, and the jury is still out on the Hoyas. Wisconsin will get a chance to prove itself early in conference play because they start 2017 with the Indiana-Purdue road trip.
No. 12 Virginia (10-1)
The Cavaliers have won 10 of their first 11, but that loss came at home to West Virginia, the only sure NCAA tournament team they have played. Virginia's non-conference schedule isn't bad, but its best wins so far are over Providence and Ohio State, two teams that figure to be at-large pool bottom-feeders, at best. The Cavs have also beaten Cal and Iowa, but those teams have disappointed so far. The ACC provides several chances for quality wins though. Virginia starts conference play at Louisville on Wednesday.
