Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Arkansas makes jump in projected AP Top 25 college basketball rankings
The AP poll will refresh Monday for the first time in two weeks, with lots of anticipated changes near the top
By
Kyle Boone
•
6 min read
AP voters have held firm in keeping Arizona over Michigan at No. 1 in the poll over the last month even as mounting evidence—like KenPom's net rating, total scoring margin and strength of schedule, among other metrics—continues to tilt heavily in Michigan's favor. That's why the first AP poll in two weeks, set to be released Monday, should be revealing of how voters handle the two unbeaten teams in their respective ballots.
The last AP poll on Dec. 22 showed a willingness from voters to cede some space to Michigan—it received 19 of 58 first-place votes, up from 15 the week prior—but there was enough reticence from the voting populace to suggest Arizona will remain No. 1 regardless of how well Michigan or any other team fares. In other words, it appears to be Arizona's spot to lose.
And Arizona has done nothing to lose it. The Wildcats went 3-0 since the last AP poll update with three wins by an average margin of 27.7 points over Bethune Cookman, South Dakota State and Utah. Not exactly a murderer's row of foes. But all convincing wins, nonetheless. The Wildcats are 14-0 entering the week. I suspect that's enough to keep them at No. 1 for a fourth consecutive poll.
Michigan has loudly made its case for No. 1, though, and its two wins since the last AP poll update -- over McNeese and USC -- were by 41 and 30 points, respectively. The Wolverines in their win over USC on Friday became the first team since 1996-97 to beat three ranked opponents by 30+ points. They lead the sport in scoring margin at 30.2 points despite a nonconference schedule that ranked 14th at KenPom. They've not just been good; they've been dominant.
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It makes for a tough call at the top of the poll. Again. So how will voters ballots shake out this week in the first update of the 2026 calendar year? My projection of how the rankings sort out are below.
| 1 |  |
| Three sweat-free wins in three outings since the last AP poll update should be enough to keep Arizona at No. 1 this week. That'd mark the longest streak at No. 1 since an eight-week stay during the 2013-14 season. Previous: 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| Michigan hasn't won a game by fewer than 18 points in nearly two months. Its average margin of victory this season is a nation-leading 30.2 points. I expect it garners more than 20 first-place votes this week and eats in to Arizona's lead at No. 1, though I'm not sure voters flip the two at the top (yet). We'll see. Previous: 2 | |
| 3 |  |
| Iowa State moved up one spot in the last AP poll and received a first-place vote to boot. Since then it has two wins over Houston Christian and West Virginia by 28 and 21 points, respectively. The 14-0 Cyclones will remain at No. 3 another week. Previous: 3 | |
| 4 |  |
| UConn's winning streak pushed to 10 games after a 73-57 win Sunday over Marquette at home. It has flown under the radar so far this season, somehow, despite a 14-1 record -- with its only loss coming in November to now-No. 1 Arizona by four points. Previous: 4 | |
| 5 |  |
| The preseason No. 1 Boilermakers moved to 13-1 overall this week with wins over Kent State and Wisconsin by 41 and 16 points, respectively. Purdue is positioned to retain its standing inside the top five. Previous: 5 | |
| 6 |  |
| The margin between Duke, Gonzaga and Houston in the last AP poll was thin -- and shaky outings this week by Duke and Gonzaga suggest Houston can move from the back of that pack to the front. The Cougars are 13-1 and riding a seven-game winning streak. Previous: 8 | |
| 7 |  |
| Duke dropped its first game of the season Dec. 20 vs. Texas Tech and played closer-than-expected games vs. Georgia Tech and Florida State in eventual wins by margins of six and four points, respectively. Now 13-1, the Blue Devils' overall record remains near-flawless, but they've looked shaky in their last few outings. Previous: 6 | |
| 8 |  |
| It took an overtime period for Gonzaga -- 24.5 point favorites over visiting Seattle -- to put away the Redhawks at home on Friday night. The Zags got the win, but it was their second consecutive wins by single digits after being favored by 24.5 points or more. Previous: 7 | |
| 9 |  |
| Coach Kevin Young's club stayed hot this weekend and rolled their nonconference momentum into conference play with an 83-73 win at Kansas State to open Big 12 action. The Cougars (13-1) have won 10-straight dating back to mid-November. Previous: 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| I'm predicting Vanderbilt cracks the top 10 this week in an in-season poll for the first time since the 1992-93 season. The Commodores have been spectacular in their 14-0 start. They are 10th in scoring offense and 12th in defensive efficiency metrics at KenPom. Previous: 11 | |
| 11 |  |
| Nebraska has scooted by several quality opponents by slim margins -- but it is nonetheless winning. The Cornhuskers are 14-0 after a 58-56 home win over Michigan State on Friday night. Previous: 13 | |
| 12 |  |
| Bama won its SEC-opener at home over Kentucky in convincing fashion Saturday 89-74 to improve to 11-3 on the season. It has won eight of its last nine games. Previous: 14 | |
| 13 |  |
| Texas Tech is positioned to move up the rankings this week thanks to losses by UNC and Michigan State. It has four-straight wins and opened conference play over the weekend with a 102-80 rout of Oklahoma State. Previous: 15 | |
| 14 |  |
| I'm expecting Arkansas to make a leap back into the top-15 of the poll Monday after an 86-75 win over No. 19 Tennessee on Saturday. It is 6-1 since the start of December with wins over Texas Tech, Louisville and now Tennessee. Previous: 18 | |
| 15 |  |
| Voters will likely move Michigan State out of the top 10 -- where it has been for four consecutive weeks -- after a 58-56 road loss to Nebraska on Friday evening. I'd be shocked if the Spartans fell any further than this. Previous: 9 | |
| 16 |  |
| Several teams in the teens suffered losses the last two weeks while Illinois went 3-0 since the last AP poll update. That positions the Illini for a move up the ranks and a likely leapfrog of Louisville, Kansas and perhaps a few others. Previous: 20 | |
| 17 |  |
| A 97-83 road loss at SMU on Saturday was historically ugly on D for the Tar Heels. It's just their second loss of the season, but against an unranked opponent it threatens to drop them to the back end of the teens this week. Previous: 12 | |
| 18 |  |
| Georgia should be a big riser this week after a weekend OT win over Auburn that propelled it to 13-1 and extended its winning streak to seven games. UGA has the highest-scoring offense in the sport and has scored 103 or more points in three of its last four outings. Previous: 23 | |
| 19 |  |
| A drop in the polls for a third consecutive update is in the cards for the Cards after falling at Stanford 80-76 Friday. After a 7-0 start, Louisville is 4-3 since the start of December. Previous: 16 | |
| 20 |  |
| An 81-75 road loss at UCF over the weekend as 4.5-point favorites should bump the Jayhawks down, but not likely out, of this week's top 25. Previous: 17 | |
| 21 |  |
| SEC play began for Tennessee over the weekend with an 86-75 loss at Arkansas, snapping a three-game winning streak. The hot-and-cold Vols (10-4) are back in action Tuesday at home vs. Texas in a potential get-right spot. Previous: 19 | |
| 22 |  |
| The last week was a rollercoaster for Virginia after a triple-OT loss at Virginia Tech and a 15-point road win over NC State to open ACC play 1-1. They've done enough to retain status as a ranked team but could fall this week. Previous: 21 | |
| 23 |  |
| I'm expecting a rise in the poll this week for Iowa after a convincing 74-61 home win over UCLA this weekend. This Hawkeyes team (12-2) has won two-straight since entering the poll for the first time two weeks ago and is riding a four-game winning streak into Tuesday's road tilt vs. Minnesota. Previous: 25 | |
| 24 |  |
| Clemson has not been ranked this season (yet) but that could change Monday after impressive road wins in the last week over Syracuse and Pitt to open ACC action. It is 12-3 overall with five-straight wins. Previous: NR | |
| 25 |  |
| Miami is one of six teams still undefeated this season and it has 15 wins already -- tied for the most among all teams. Its resume overall is largely unimpressive but its record is good enough to merit consideration as a ranked team. Previous: NR | |
