Bracketology: What teams need to do in conference tournaments to boost their NCAA Tournament profiles
Here's what the NCAA Tournament selection committee will be watching during this week's conference tournaments
By
Jerry Palm
•
6 min read
The major conferences get their tournaments underway this week beginning Tuesday in the ACC. Conference tournament games are no more important to the selection committee than regular season games beyond deciding the automatic qualifier for each league. However, they are opportunities to pick up quality wins on a neutral floor and that is always a good thing.
For teams on the bubble, these games are vital. For others, it's all about seeding.
Here is a conference by conference breakdown of each tournament from a Bracketology perspective.
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
ACC Tournament
IN FIELD
2. DUKE
10. NOTRE DAME
10. MIAMI
11. N. CAROLINA
This is unquestionably the worst season for the ACC in decades. Duke has an outside shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but is held back by the fact that nobody it can play and beat in this tournament can help them.
North Carolina, Miami and Wake Forest all have some chance of getting in the field of 68. The Tar Heels are in the best shape after winning at Duke and needs to avoid a stupid loss. They might not even get a chance to play a game like that.
Miami is the No. 5 seed and Wake is the No. 4 seed, so they are on a collision course for a quarterfinal game. The loser of that game is in significant trouble. Miami swept the regular season series.
American Athletic Conference Tournament
IN FIELD
6. HOUSTON
11. MEMPHIS
12. SMU
Houston, a projected No. 6 seed in Monday's Bracketology, is the AAC champion but Memphis has been playing the best at the end of the season. The top-seeded Cougars are the only sure thing for the NCAA Tournament, but do not be surprised if their seed number is lower than their NET ranking. Houston only has one Quad 1 win, which came at Oklahoma State, and one win over a team with a shot at making the tournament. That came at home against SMU.
SMU is hanging on to a spot in the bracket in large part to a win over the Cougars at home and a sweep of Memphis. The Tigers have won nine of their last ten, but lost to SMU during that streak and right before it started.
Memphis did some damage to its tournament resume in the early part of the season, but is in a little better shape than SMU at the moment. The Tigers non-conference win over Alabama looms large.
The potential SMU-Memphis semifinal could end up knocking one of those teams out of the NCAA tournament.
Big 12 Tournament
IN FIELD
1. BAYLOR
2. KANSAS
4. TEXAS TECH
6. TEXAS
7. IOWA ST.
8. TCU
There are no bubble teams in this league. Six are solidly in the field and playing for seed. Baylor and Kansas are each playing to be No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament and if things break well in other places, they could both end up on the top line.
This conference has been so strong this season that there are no bad losses to be had in league play. As of this morning, every team is in the top 80 of the NET. Iowa State is 7-11 in conference play, yet has nine Quad 1 wins, which is the third most that any team has. Only Baylor and Kansas have more. Five teams have eight.
Big East Tournament
IN FIELD
3. VILLANOVA
4. PROVIDENCE
5. CONNECTICUT
7. SETON HALL
9. MARQUETTE
9. CREIGHTON
10. XAVIER
Much-maligned Providence is the top seed, although Villanova is higher seeded in my bracket. That is due in part to the Wildcats sweep of the Friars. Providence is one of those teams that has a better resume than its metrics might indicate, but the time to prove it is upon them.
While this conference may put seven of its 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament, none will be a No. 1 seed and it is possible that none will be as high as a two either.
Xavier has been sliding down my bracket lately after losing seven of eight prior to defeating Georgetown in the regular season finale. They will start the Big East tournament as an eight seed facing Butler. A win puts Xavier safely in the field, but a loss will leave some doubt.
Big Ten Tournament
IN FIELD
2. PURDUE
3. ILLINOIS
3. WISCONSIN
7. OHIO ST.
7. IOWA
8. MICHIGAN ST.
12. RUTGERS
12. MICHIGAN
Illinois is the top seed and looks the most menacing. Purdue is the highest seed in my bracket at the moment, but would have to win the Big Ten tournament to stay there. Like the Big East, a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament is out of reach for the Big Ten, but if the champion comes from among the top three teams, that team will be no worse than a 2-seed.
The conference has been especially bubbly this season. Michigan, Indiana and lately, Rutgers have spent most of the last month going back and forth over the cut-line of the bracket.
Rutgers ended up the four-seed in the conference tournament thanks to a strong run of play to finish the season. The Scarlet Knights are still not in the NCAA Tournament bracket though. They have a potential quarterfinal match up with 5th-seeded Iowa. A win over the Hawkeyes might be enough to get Rutgers into the NCAA Tournament.
The 8-9 game features Indiana and Michigan. That is almost certainly an elimination game from the NCAA Tournament. The winner is not guaranteed anything though except for a chance to play Illinois. A win in that game would likely be enough to get into the NCAA tournament.
Mountain West Tournament
IN FIELD
6. COLORADO ST.
8. BOISE ST..
9. SAN DIEGO ST
9. WYOMING
It has been a terrific season for the Mountain West, which has four teams that could make the NCAA tournament. Colorado State and league champion Boise State are safely in the field. Wyoming got a tough draw as the four-seed, having to play UNLV on its home floor, but I think the Cowboys get into the NCAA tournament even with a loss.
The team closest to the bottom of the bracket is San Diego State, but the Aztecs have finished strong. The win at Wyoming was important for their NCAA hopes. San Diego State is one of eight teams that does not have a loss outside of Quad 1.
Pac-12 Tournament
IN FIELD
1. ARIZONA.
4. UCLA.
6. USC
The Pac 12 has been strong at the top, but like the ACC, is really lacking in depth. Arizona is playing for a potential No. 1 seed. UCLA and USC are top 25 teams. There is not even a team of bubble quality in the rest of the league. Conceivably, a team like Oregon or Colorado could make a deep run to get into contention, but by the time they get far enough along, they might be the automatic qualifier.
SEC Tournament
IN FIELD
1. AUBURN
2. KENTUCKY
3. TENNESSEE
4. ARKANSAS
5. LSU
5. ALABAMA
Auburn and Kentucky are in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. If one of them wins the SEC tournament, it is very likely that team will be on the top line on Selection Sunday.
There are four other teams in the top 25 section of the bracket. Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama and LSU are all top half of the bracket teams.
The only other team that seems to have a chance to get in is Florida, which has wins over Auburn at home and against Ohio State. Their home loss to Texas Southern is a significant problem though.
The Gators are the No. 9 seed in the SEC Tournament and will face No. 8 seed Texas A&M. The Aggies have an outside shot at an at-large bid. This is another 8-9 game that serves as an NCAA elimination game. The winner gets a matchup with Auburn, where a win would definitely get the committee's attention.
