ACC strength of schedule rankings 2021: Clemson has a favorable path, Florida State draws a tough slate
How each ACC team's schedule stacks up ahead of the 2021 college football season
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9 min read
The strength of schedule across the ACC is anchored by a solid middle class that might fall below the fold when the preseason polls are released, yet still help give the entire league good standing among its peers in college football.
When judged across the entire FBS landscape, all 14 teams end up in the top half of the country in terms of strength of schedule ratings and rankings. In Bill Connelly's SP+ projections for 2021 over at ESPN, you can find 12 of the 14 teams inside the top 65. But since nine of those 12 teams fall between No. 35 (Virginia Tech) and No. 64 (Wake Forest), the ACC's strength might be overlooked or undersold on a national level since conversations are more often driven by a top-25 mindset. About half of the conference will rate out within a touchdown of each other on a neutral field, and I mention that to point out how fluid these strength of schedule rankings are (and will be) once you get outside of the top four.
But what ties the top four teams with the toughest slates in the ACC together? The presence of Clemson, North Carolina and Miami. While Miami is among those four and obviously can't play itself (more on that below), it has arguably the toughest nonconference game in the entire season with the opener against Alabama. So while the strength of the conference is a strong middle class with no bad teams and plenty of coin-flip games, the toughest schedules are the ones that include those few teams occupying the obvious top tier heading into the 2021 season.
ACC Strength of Schedule Rankings
| 1 |  |
| Georgia Tech is going to be near the top of these rankings every single year. The Yellow Jackets' nonconference schedule is always going to conclude with Good Old Fashioned Hate against Georgia and the team's cross-division rival in ACC play is Clemson. In addition to those likely top-five opponents, Georgia Tech draws a Notre Dame game in South Bend, which combined with North Carolina and Miami gives the Yellow Jackets five opponents that all ranked in the top 15 of the CBS Sports post-spring top 25. What's really interesting here is that recruiting success under Geoff Collins suggests that Georgia Tech could be in a leap year in 2021, but the schedule leaves it where the team could be markedly better without seeing a major increase in regular-season wins. | |
| 2 |  |
| Like Georgia Tech, the Seminoles are going to have one of the tougher schedules in the conference thanks to not only the in-state rivalry against a quality SEC opponent but one of the more difficult cross-division pairings in Miami. The similarities continue with Notre Dame appearing on the schedule -- though the game is in Tallahassee in Week 1 instead of in South Bend in late November -- and a tough rotating opponent from the Coastal Division in North Carolina. The tiebreakers went to Georgia Tech because I've got Georgia a notch ahead of Florida and the Coastal Division slightly tougher than the Atlantic Division, but to me these are the two toughest schedules in the ACC. | |
| 3 |  |
| Opening the season with Alabama is the starting point for any discussion regarding Miami's schedule strength, but if you are going to play Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, I'd argue that this is the most ideal spot. It's going to be the first game of the season after a mass exodus of NFL talent, particularly on offense, and some of the most single-season turnover that Saban has seen on his coaching staff since arriving in Tuscaloosa. After Alabama, it gets no easier with one of the top teams in the Sun Belt (Appalachian State) and a competitive Power Five squad (Michigan State), but at least those games are at home, along with a tough rotating cross-division opponent in NC State. If Florida State were closer to where it wants to be and Michigan State was further along in its rebuilding process, Miami might have the toughest schedule in the ACC. Instead, it's one of the most dangerous because so many of these apparent wins against quality opponents could potentially flip the other way. | |
| 4 |  |
| Coming off one of the most impressive seasons of the Dave Doeren era, NC State enters 2021 with expectations of another step forward thanks to its returning experience, but it has a schedule that ranks among the toughest in the ACC. Clemson is back on the slate with a return to division play and annual cross-division rival North Carolina is as strong as its been in decades. When you add in Miami as a rotating Coastal Division opponent, the Wolfpack are set to face the top three teams in the ACC as well as a tricky nonconference road game against Mississippi State. | |
| 5 |  |
| While the cross-division draw of Virginia and Duke is favorable, the Cardinals find themselves loaded up with a pair of quality nonconference opponents in addition to their own annual SEC in-state rivalry against Kentucky. The season opens on Monday night of Labor Day weekend with Ole Miss. After a recovery-and-reload opportunity against Eastern Kentucky, the home opener welcomes Gus Malzahn and UCF to Cardinals Stadium on the following Friday night. Throw in the annual division game against Clemson, and Louisville could probably be added to that conversation with Florida State and Georgia Tech as teams that may be improved from 2020 but won't see it show up in the win-loss record because of the strength of schedule. | |
| 6 |  |
| As long as Mack Brown and the Tar Heels can get in and out of Blacksburg with a Friday night win on the season's opening weekend, this team has a decent chance to be 5-0 heading into a four-week stretch that will determine whether North Carolina meets its expectations for ACC championship contention. First is a visit from Florida State as Brown looks for his first-ever coaching win against his alma mater, then one week later Miami comes to town looking to grab the driver's seat for the ACC Coastal Division. Then, after a week off, the toughest nonconference schedule creeps up in a Halloween weekend primetime showdown with Notre Dame in South Bend. It doesn't get much easier coming down the stretch with Wake Forest followed by a road game at Pitt on a short turnaround before the regular season finale against NC State in Raleigh. | |
| 7 |  |
| As one of the teams on Notre Dame's ACC flirtation rotation, the Hokies have at least one big headliner outside of division rivals North Carolina and Miami. How the rest of the nonconference schedule ranks depends on how you feel about Neal Brown's chances to take a step forward in Year 3 with West Virginia. I've got the border rivals rated about the same heading into the year and figure the Mountaineers could be favored thanks to home-field advantage, providing some strength to counterbalance a cross-division draw of Boston College and Syracuse. | |
| 8 |  |
| It's going to confuse those unfamiliar with ACC scheduling in recent years, but the toughest opponent on Wake Forest's nonconference schedule is North Carolina. That's right, the in-state foes are set to play the second leg of a home-and-home nonconference series that was booked in 2015. The two games (in 2019 and 2021) are in place to give the two teams separated by about 90 minutes of interstate a chance to play between their cross-division conference games scheduled for 2015 and 2022. The actual Coastal Division draw for the Demon Deacons carries good opportunities with Virginia and Duke, but the presence of Clemson, NC State and a tough road trip to Army keep the strength of schedule respectable. | |
| 9 |  |
| What's working in Boston College's favor is where some of the toughest games on the schedule will be played. The Power Five nonconference opponent Missouri, NC State, Florida State and Wake Forest are all coming to Chestnut Hill. The Eagles have to play Clemson on the road, but if you chalk that up as a (mostly) decided outcome, you'd rather have the coin-flip type games on your home turf. The rest of the road schedule includes UMass, Temple and Syracuse -- all games Boston College will likely be favored to win -- and key games against Louisville and Georgia Tech that are likely be the pivot points for the Eagles' regular-season win total. | |
| 10 |  |
| I could be wrong about this, but I think Liberty is the toughest nonconference foe on Syracuse's schedule, and the fact that the Orange have a couple teams behind them in this ranking speaks to the expectations for the Flames in 2021. Each ACC team plays at least one Power Five nonconference game, so the fact that Syracuse has Rutgers on the slate is favorable, but the cross-division draws are with Virginia Tech and Pitt. Florida State and NC State have the toughest Coastal draw with each getting Miami and North Carolina, but if you move down in the pecking order, the Hokies and Panthers both have good arguments as the next-best teams from that side of the standings. | |
| 11 |  |
| Some early preseason strength of schedule metrics have Pitt near the bottom of the ACC, but I gave them a boost in the pecking order not only because they play Clemson but the nonconference showdown with Tennessee is on the road. It might be a Vols team with a new coach and massive turnover on the roster, but it's still a road game in Neyland Stadium and not a contest that should be overlooked for a team looking to make some noise in 2021. A couple factors making Pitt's conference schedule easier than some of its ACC Coastal Division brethren is getting both Miami and North Carolina at home and its annual cross-division rival being Syracuse. | |
| 12 |  |
| It's a sneaky-tough schedule for the 2019 ACC Coastal Division champs. You've got an Illinois team taken over by Bret Bielema early in the year, games against North Carolina and Miami coming on the road and late-season nonconference showdowns at BYU and against Notre Dame at home. The annual cross-division game against Louisville is also on the road, giving Bronco Mendenhall and the 2021 Wahoos an uphill battle to make a return to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. But still, for all the talk of a sneaky-tough schedule, this is a group that avoids Clemson, NC State and Florida State. | |
| 13 |  |
| I was discussing these rankings in our pre-show meeting for a Cover 3 Podcast episode this week, and both Bud Elliott and Tom Fornelli pointed out an interesting trend in strength of schedule: all the best teams have the worst strength of schedule because they aren't able to play themselves. Throughout this entire ranking, one of the primary tiebreakers has been whether a team has to play Clemson, the top-five (arguably top-three) opponent that resides in the conference. The same thing happens in the Big Ten with Ohio State, and happens in reverse in the Big 12 where Kansas has the toughest schedule every year because it doesn't get to play itself. This won't be as lopsided as in years where South Carolina and Florida State are both closer to peak performance, but as it stands, not even a season-opener against top-five Georgia can keep the Tigers from having one of the easiest schedules in the ACC. | |
| 14 |  |
| The Blue Devils have two Power Five foes on the nonconference slate, but Northwestern and Kansas are not going lead to a spike in the strength of schedule metrics, especially with both games being at home. The draw from the Atlantic Division includes Wake Forest and Louisville, two teams that should be firmly in the middle pack on that side of the standings, but the toughest games on the schedule are annual division rivals in North Carolina and Miami. | |
