default-cbs-image

There isn't much time left in the season, which means there isn't a lot of data left to enter into my rankings. That means that it is going to be difficult for anybody to catch Alabama in the regular season here, and something else I discovered while doing some tinkering is that it might be hard to catch Alabama period.

Let's just assume that Alabama is going to beat Florida in the SEC title game this week. I don't think that's asking too much, seeing as how the Tide is currently favored by three touchdowns over the Gators. If (once) that happens and Alabama goes to the College Football Playoff, even if it doesn't win the national title, there's a very realistic chance Alabama will remain on top of these rankings.

I thought that the winner of the game between Ohio State and Michigan would close the gap a little bit on Alabama, but to my surprise, the gap between Alabama and Ohio State in my formula is larger than it's been at any other time this year.

Yes, Ohio State beating Michigan gave it a large boost as far as its strength of schedule, but the last few weeks, it's taken a bit of a dip statistically, particularly the offense, and it's affected their rankings.

Anyway, a lot could happen between now and then, and Alabama will likely make it all a moot point. Let's just worry about right now, but before we get to the rankings themselves, a quick reminder as to how this all works.

1. My opinion has absolutely nothing to do with the rankings. They are based on a mathematical formula of my creation. So keep this in mind before you call me an idiot, which I know you will.

2. There is true equality to start. The math doesn't play favorites. Before the season begins, defending national champion Alabama is just as good as our defending Bottom 25 champion Central Florida. The only factor that matters in the rankings is how you've performed on the field in 2016.

3. Wins and losses mean more than anything. I have a lot of different statistics involved, and I factor in strength of schedule, but at the end of the day whether you won or lost is going to mean more than anything else. Also, just because it's too difficult for me to rank FCS teams as well, my formula doesn't have much respect for FCS schools. If you beat one it won't mean much, and if you lose to one, well, you might show up in The Bottom 25.

4. The formula is in no way predictive. It is based on nothing but what has occurred in the season to this point in time. Just because a team is currently ranked No. 15 does not mean it's better or that it's going to beat a team ranked No. 35. It just means that, to this point, it has been the 15th-best team in the country. Think of it as a meritocracy in its purest form. The math plays no favorites. I put this here every week, but my inbox and Twitter mentions make it pretty clear you don't read it.

5. I won't share the formula. I just don't want to. I'm not a mathematician. I know my formula isn't perfect. I don't think a perfect formula can exist, so I don't share it because I don't care what anybody thinks. So don't ask. Just know that, even if you don't agree with it right now, at the end of the season, it has been startlingly accurate.

Let's get to rankin'.

1. Alabama 12-0 (Last week: 1)

2. Ohio State 11-1 (2)

3. Washington 11-1 (4)

4. Michigan 10-2 (3)

5. Clemson 11-1 (6)

6. Western Michigan 12-0 (5)

7. Penn State 10-2 (9): The way people are talking, it's becoming clearer that Ohio State, despite not winning its own division, let alone its conference, will be in the College Football Playoff. CBS Sports' own Jerry Palm calls the Buckeyes a "lock" for a spot. While I'm not nearly that confident in the inevitability of it all, I've reached the point where I don't necessarily disagree with the fact it's far more likely to happen than not.

And I wouldn't have a problem with Ohio State being in the playoff, but only under certain conditions.

If Penn State beats Wisconsin on Saturday night and wins the Big Ten, yet is left out of the playoff for Ohio State, I will be less than pleased. I might even get #MadOnline. It wouldn't be because Ohio State was in, it would be that the Buckeyes were and Penn State wasn't.

It's important to remember why the CFP was implemented in the first place (well, besides the barrels upon barrels of cash): to settle the national championship on the field. Not just through human polls and a couple of computer polls like the one that produces these very rankings. So for the committee to completely skip over a Penn State team that not only won Ohio State's conference, but also beat Ohio State on the field would seem to me to be contrary to the entire purpose of having it in the first place.

Again, this is all contingent on Penn State beating Wisconsin first, which is no sure thing. I will say, however, that the common perception I get from those around me is that Wisconsin will win this game, and win it easily. I'm not nearly as sure of that.

It is not difficult to make an argument that over the last six weeks there hasn't been a team in the Big Ten playing better than Penn State has been. Hell, over the last 18 quarters of play, Penn State has outscored its opponents 215-64. It's been pretty damn good, but people still seem to think this is the same team that lost to Pitt and to Michigan by 39 points we're talking about.

It isn't.

8. Louisville 9-3 (7)

9. USC 9-3 (10)

10. Boise State 10-2 (8)

11. Wisconsin 10-2 (12)

12. Colorado 10-2 (13)

13. Oklahoma 9-2 (14)

14. Appalachian State 9-3 (23)

15. West Virginia 9-2 (21)

16. Western Kentucky 9-3 (24)

17. Oklahoma State 9-2 (20)

18. Virginia Tech 9-3 (30): If there is a chance for chaos this weekend, I'm looking to Virginia Tech to provide it. Not because I think Virginia Tech is some great team that's being overlooked, or one that is definitely going to beat Clemson.

No, I just look to the Hokies to provide it because they've been one of the most chaotic teams in the country so far this season.

We're talking about a team that lost to Tennessee by 21, beat North Carolina by 31, immediately followed that up with a 14-point loss to Syracuse, then won three straight before losing to Georgia Tech by 10, and followed that loss up with a comeback win over Notre Dame and a dismantling of Virginia.

I have absolutely no idea which team is going to show up from week to week, and that style of play has been reflected here in the rankings. The Hokies have been one of the most volatile teams here every week, and this week is just the latest example, as they rocket up 12 spots.

And it's that bi-polar personality that makes this team extremely dangerous against Clemson this weekend. The Hokies are just as capable of losing to Clemson by 30 as they are of beating it by 14.

So, again, if there's any chance for real chaos this weekend, look to the Hokies to provide it.

19. Florida State 9-3 (26)

20. Temple 9-3 (29)

21. South Florida 10-2 (28)

22. Florida 8-3 (19)

23. San Diego State 9-3 (11)

24. Houston 9-3 (17)

25. Stanford 9-3 (32)

26. Troy 9-2 (34)

27. Nebraska 9-3 (16)

28. LSU 7-4 (33): I went over this a bit with Chip Patterson on the SEC on CBS podcast, but I'd like to rehash it here. While it doesn't tell the entire story, we can boil LSU's entire season down to one sentence.

It fired Les Miles to replace him with Ed Orgeron.

Had you been told this would happen before the season began, you'd have either laughed hysterically, or if you were an LSU fan, you would have begun drinking (more) heavily. But as crazy as it sounds, it makes a lot of sense right now.

LSU went after both Jimbo Fisher and Tom Herman, and it missed out on both. Outside of those two, I don't know who else is out there that's a home run hire that you can guarantee is going to do any better than Orgeron. Coach O's career record in the SEC is terrifying if you're an LSU fan, but he's in a situation that is miles apart from what he faced at Ole Miss.

It all reminds me of what happened at Clemson when Dabo Swinney was named interim coach after Tommy Bowden was fired during the 2008 season. He was then given the gig permanently, and there were a lot of skeptics about the decision, because until that point Swinney wasn't known for his coaching acumen as much as his recruiting acumen.

He was also loved by his players.

Does any of this sound familiar?

What Swinney then did was surround himself with a fantastic staff and delegate the responsibilities. His offensive coordinator ran the offense, his defensive coordinator ran the defense, and Dabo oversaw it all, and recruited his ass off.

That's exactly what Orgeron can do at LSU. They've already locked up Dave Aranda, and Orgeron is now an offensive coordinator away (the name mentioned the most frequently is Lane Kiffin) from being able to do what he does better than anybody in the world: be Ed Orgeron.

And, crazy as it may sound, Coach O being Coach O may be exactly what LSU needs.

29. Auburn 8-4 (15)

30. Miami 8-4 (36)

31. Washington State 8-4 (18)

32. Iowa 8-4 (41): Remember 2015 Iowa? The team that went 12-0 during the regular season, and was one drive away from winning the Big Ten and earning a CFP berth last season? I do. I had missed that team. It wasn't an elite team, and it certainly caught some breaks. But the Hawkeyes knew what they were, and stuck to what they were, and doing all of that made them successful last year.

I hadn't seen much of that team this year. Oh, I knew there'd be some regression, but this was still an Iowa team that I thought could repeat in the Big Ten West again this season. For most of the season, unfortunately, that team just didn't show up.

There were the surprising losses to North Dakota State and Northwestern, and losses to Wisconsin and Penn State in which you never truly felt like Iowa was a real threat (especially in the Penn State loss). There were also wins against Rutgers and Minnesota that were a bit too close.

But then something funny happened. Michigan came to Iowa City for a night game, and 2015 Iowa suddenly returned. It's decided to stick around too.

Ever since that upset over Michigan, this team has just been so refreshing to watch again. It's back to being Iowa, as it crushed Illinois two weeks ago (as it should) and it crushed Nebraska this weekend (which it wouldn't seem to have had any hope of doing like a month ago).

I only wish this team had been around all season long. The Big Ten could be even stronger than it already is.

33. Navy 9-2 (39)

34. Toledo 9-3 (22)

35. Tulsa 9-3 (38)

36. Louisiana Tech 8-4 (27)

37. Texas A&M 8-4 (25)

38. Air Force 9-3 (42)

39. North Carolina 8-4 (35)

40. Old Dominion 9-3 (44)

41. Minnesota 8-4 (31)

42. Pitt 8-4 (46)

43. Memphis 8-4 (43)

44. Georgia Tech 8-4 (45): If I can just push my own personal agenda here for a second -- as if I'm not doing that all the time anyway -- I'd like to use Georgia Tech as an example of a philosophy I believe in. Georgia Tech is a school with a lot of limitations that are out of its control when it comes to competing in major money sports, so what it did back in 2008 was decide to change direction.

It did something a lot of schools in similar positions refuse to do. It dared to be different. It hired Paul Johnson away from Navy and said "screw it, let's run the option."

And it has paid off for the Yellow Jackets so often.

After getting off to a slow start this season, Tech has won five of its last six games to finish the regular season at 8-4. That means Tech will be going bowling for the eighth time in Johnson's nine seasons, and even if they haven't won any conference titles, Tech has played in four ACC Championship Games in his nine seasons.

That's more than Miami, Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest have combined. Hell, Miami hasn't played in one.

All because Georgia Tech does something different than everybody else. Sure, running an option may keep Georgia Tech from competing for national titles, but are the Yellow Jackets going to do that running a pro-style or spread offense? Probably not, no.

And more schools in similar positions should take heed of what Georgia Tech has done. Don't be afraid to be different than everybody else in your conference. I don't necessarily mean you have to run an option offense, but if you're at an inherent disadvantage, don't try to be like the powerhouses of your conference.

Try to be the team that can be a thorn in the side of the powerhouses of your conference.

It's worked for the Yellow Jackets. Oh, and it seems to be working for Paul Johnson's old school in the AAC as well.

45. Utah 8-4 (40)

46. Tennessee 8-4 (37)

47. TCU 6-5 (48)

48. Ohio 8-4 (49)

49. BYU 8-4 (50)

50. Kansas State 7-4 (Not ranked)

No Longer Ranked: Wyoming (47)