The Fornelli 50 rankings: Louisville, Nebraska surging after huge wins
Ranking the best teams in the country based on nothing but their performances in 2016
By
Tom Fornelli
•
7 min read
For the first time in the long three-week history of The Fornelli 50, we have the same No. 1 team for consecutive weeks. That's right, Ohio State has made history -- congratulations Buckeyes.
I suppose when your defense has scored more touchdowns than its allowed, this is the kind of thing that's going to happen.
Of course, just because the Buckeyes remain on top doesn't mean we didn't see plenty of shuffling behind them, including within the top 10. Who moved where? Well, we'll get to all of that shortly, but before we do, here's a quick reminder on how The Fornelli 50 works, because knowing is half the battle.
1. My opinion has absolutely nothing to do with the rankings. They are based on a mathematical formula of my creation. So keep this in mind before you call me an idiot, which I know you will.
2. There is true equality to start. The math doesn't play favorites. Before the season begins, defending national champion Alabama is just as good as our defending Bottom 25 champion UCF Knights. The only factor that matters in the rankings is how you've performed on the field in 2016.
3. Wins and losses mean more than anything. I have a lot of different statistics involved, and I factor in strength of schedule (though, remember, everybody begins the season with the same SOS), but at the end of the day whether you won or lost is going to mean more than anything else. Also, just because it's too difficult for me to rank FCS teams as well, my formula doesn't have much respect for FCS schools. If you beat one it won't mean much, and if you lose to one, well, you might show up in The Bottom 25.
4. Things are strange early in the season. Remember, these rankings are based on data, and early in the season, there isn't much of a sample size. So if you start the season 01-2, I don't care what you did last season, or who you've lost to this year, you aren't going to be ranked in The Fornelli 50 at this point. You might finish the season 10-2, but at the moment you're just a team with twice as many losses as wins.
5. The formula is in no way predictive. It is based on nothing but what has occurred in the season to this point in time. Just because a team is currently ranked No. 15 does not mean it's better or that it's going to beat a team ranked No. 35. It just means that, to this point, it's been the 15th best team in the country. Think of it as a meritocracy in its purest form. The math plays no favorites.
6. I won't share the formula. I just don't want to. I'm not a mathematician. I know my formula isn't perfect. I don't think a perfect formula can exist, so I don't share it because I don't care what anybody thinks. So don't ask. Just know that, even if you don't agree with it right now, at the end of the season, it's been startlingly accurate.
Now let's assign some numbers to some teams.
1. Ohio State 3-0 (Last week -- 1)
2. Louisville 3-0 (4): Louisville! What have you done?
Listen, I was in no way surprised that Louisville beat Florida State on Saturday. The reason I took Louisville and the points in last week's Pick Six column was precisely because I thought this team was more than capable of beating the Seminoles.
But by 43 points?
That is just not supposed to happen to Florida State. Ever. Not by Louisville. Not even by Alabama. But that's exactly what happened, and I think we need to spread some love around the Pizza Boys of Bobby Petrino. Lamar Jackson is getting all the attention, and deservedly so because he's been legit amazing, but there's a whole lot more to like about this team. Brandon Radcliff is averaging 137 yards per game and 11.42 yards per carry in the two games he's actually played all four quarters. On defense, we're talking about a team that's 11th in the country in tackles for loss, and fifth in sacks.
This isn't just Jackson. It's a team effort. The kind of effort that makes Louisville a real contender in the ACC and a candidate for the College Football Playoff. If you can beat Florida State by 43, who can't you beat?
3. Michigan 3-0 (5)
4. Washington 3-0 (3)
5. Florida 3-0 (8)
6. Miami 3-0 (12)
7. Alabama 3-0 (2)
8. Boise State 2-0 (9)
9. South Florida 3-0 (11)
10. Toledo 3-0 (17)
11. Nebraska 3-0 (6): Is Nebraska the new team to beat in the Big Ten West? I'm not ready to write off Iowa after a loss to North Dakota State, and Wisconsin is still 3-0, but it just scraped by Georgia State and is about to enter the Hunger Games portion of its schedule.
Then there's Nebraska, a team that was overlooked a bit too easily before the season because it went 6-7. Closer inspection showed the Huskers were a much better team than that record. Of those seven losses, only one came by double digits (a 10-point loss to Purdue), and many came in the final minutes, some on the final possession.
So even the slightest improvement and a shift in luck was bound to improve Nebraska's outlook in 2016, and so far we're seeing the results. While a 2-0 start with wins over Fresno State and Wyoming was nice, this weekend's win over Oregon solidifies Nebraska's hold as a real contender in the Big Ten West.
12. Baylor 3-0 (20)
13. Army 3-0 (22)
14. Stanford 2-0 (16)
15. Memphis 2-0 (NR)
16. Air Force 2-0 (14)
17. Indiana 2-0 (18)
18. Central Michigan 3-0 (28)
19. Arkansas 3-0 (32)
20. Wisconsin 3-0 (13)
21. Georgia Tech 3-0 (NR)
22. Tennessee 3-0 (24)
23. Iowa 2-1 (7)
24. Maryland 3-0 (21)
25. Texas A&M 3-0 (37): My formula isn't as bullish on the Aggies as the voters of the AP Top 25 clearly are. This is a team that began the season unranked; but after three wins against UCLA, Prairie View A&M and Auburn, the Aggies have climbed all the way to No. 10 in the AP Top 25.
That's probably a bit higher than what they deserve, and I definitely think there's some "3-0 SEC team" going on in the voting process, but to be fair, I believe No. 25 is a bit too low as well. If this were my opinion, I'd slot the Aggies between 15 and 17.
I'm definitely a fan of this team's potential. I did pick it to finish second in the SEC West before the season began. I just don't want to crown it for beating a UCLA team that hasn't exactly been blowing the doors off people, and an Auburn team that could easily finish last in the SEC West.
But the talent is there. Oh so much talent. I could watch Myles Garrett tape for hours.
26. Utah 3-0 (47)
27. West Virginia 2-0 (23)
28. Kansas State 1-1 (NR)
29. Western Michigan 3-0 (NR): Three simple words: Row. The. Boat. If you're a fan of a team that could be in the market for a new coach in the near future, memorize them. Learn to love them. They could be coming your way.
It's the mantra of Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck, and I made sure to put Western Michigan coach in front of his name because I don't know how much longer we'll be able to do that. He's going to be one of the hottest commodities on the coaching market this year. The 35-year-old Fleck (he'll turn 36 in November) is in his fourth season at Western Michigan, and his recruiting successes are starting to show on the field.
Already this season, his Broncos have defeated two Big Ten teams in Northwestern and Illinois. For Fleck, an Illinois native, it has to feel especially good. Should he beat his alma mater Northern Illinois later this year, he should probably get some kind of Illinois State Champions rings for his team.
Sadly for his players, it'll likely be a parting gift. If the Broncos keep winning this year -- and I don't see any reason why they won't -- Fleck will land a Power Five gig this winter.
30. San Diego State 3-0 (39)
31. Houston 3-0 (36)
32. Wake Forest 3-0 (26)
33. TCU 2-1 (NR)
34. Clemson 3-0 (25)
35. Arizona State 3-0 (34)
36. Texas 2-1 (15)
37. Virginia Tech 2-1 (NR)
38. Navy 3-0 (45)
39. Oregon 2-1 (19)
40. Georgia Southern 3-0 (29)
41. Penn State 2-1 (NR)
42. Western Kentucky 2-1 (NR)
43. Michigan State 2-0 (NR)
44. Georgia 3-0 (31): It's strange. Georgia nearly lost to Mizzou on Saturday, but the close call actually made me a bit more optimistic about its chances going forward.
Through the first two games of the season, I was worried about Georgia because the offense seemed so one-dimensional. Now, Nick Chubb is a hell of a dimension to have, but to truly contend you need to be well-rounded, and on Saturday night we saw some evidence of the air attack emerging. Jacob Eason is the best quarterback on this roster, and I believe he may have taken a firm grasp on the starting role against Missouri, throwing for 308 yards and three touchdowns with none bigger than the game-winning strike to Isaiah McKenzie in the final minutes.
It was just the kind of thing you wanted to see from Eason and the Bulldogs as they get ready to go on the road for Ole Miss.
45. NC State 2-1 (NR)
46. Colorado 2-1 (10)
47. UCLA 2-1 (49)
48. California 2-1 (NR)
49. North Carolina 2-1 (41)
50. Minnesota 2-0 (38)
No longer ranked: Cincinnati, Florida State, Texas State, Auburn, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Mississippi State, Missouri, Notre Dame, Appalachian State, East Carolina
