College football expert shares betting trends for bowl games after Christmas

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As bowl season proceeds, we wanted to wait until right about now for a final angle, with enough of the early bowl games having taken place to provide a little bit of info on how the postseason is progressing while offering a near-final look at the various categories we charted throughout the season, related to point spread streaks and "AFS" (Away from Spread).

Early bowl action, through Dec. 23, has seen few trends emerge save for a couple conference angles. Overall, underdogs stood 6-5 against the line in the first 11 bowls. A traditionally profitable category, double-digit dogs, stands 1-1, with Boise State falling to Washington in the LA Bowl and Toledo slipping inside of a 12-point price against Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl. Some of the spreads are more apt to move dramatically in bowl season as players opt-out, though sometimes it creates value; the Toledo spread jumped upwards when QB Tucker Gleason announced he would bypass the game, but backup Kalieb Osborne was capable enough to get the Rockets inside of what became an overinflated 12-point spread.

We've seen our share of Sun Belt vs. Conference USA matchups already, though the early trends to note have come in the Mountain West, whose postseason entrants to date have all lost straight up (Boise, Utah State, and UNLV) and also 0-3 vs. the spread, while MAC entries to date (Western Michigan, Toledo, and Ohio) are 3-0 vs. the line.

For the MAC, upcoming bowl entrants are Central Michigan (vs. Northwestern in the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit), and Miami-Ohio (vs. Fresno State, another MAC-Mountain West matchup in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl). As for the Mountain West, it still has aforementioned Fresno in the Snoop Dogg Bowl plus New Mexico (Rate Bowl vs. Minnesota) and San Diego State (New Mexico Bowl vs. North Texas) in upcoming bowl action.

Following are the semifinal tallies in the point spread Streaks and "AFS" (Away From Spread) categories, mostly offered as points of reference for the season just concluded. For what it is worth, by the end of this particular 2025 campaign, most of the longer spread win streaks had disappeared from view. On the losing side, however, we see a greater collection of spread skids of three losses or more.

For the following lists, results through the Dec. 23 bowls are calculated, and include the first-round playoff games last weekend. Teams that have completed their seasons have an asterisk (*) while teams with bowls/playoffs still to come are noted in bold.

Point spread win streaks

6: Texas Tech, Vanderbilt;

5: Western Michigan*, Miami 4-0-1 last five;

4: Florida International, Oklahoma State, Toledo*, Washington State*;

3: Arizona, Stanford, Illinois 2-0-1 last three;

2: Appalachian State, Army, Boston College, Charlotte, Delaware*, Duke, La Tech, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ole Miss, TCU, Texas

Point spread losing streaks

6: Maryland 0-5-1 last six, Syracuse 0-5-1 last six

5: UCF, UTEP;

4: Cincinnati, Liberty, North Carolina, San Jose State, Southern Miss*, Texas A&M*, Wyoming, Virginia Tech 0-3-1 last four

3: Ball State, Baylor, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Memphis*, Mississippi State, Missouri State*, Oregon State, USC

2: Arkansas, Colorado State, Florida State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma*, Purdue, Rice, Sam Houston, South Florida*, Temple, UNLV*, Utah .

Away from spread plus (+) past two decisions

Vanderbilt +21.75
Texas Tech +20.5
Western Michigan* +19.50
Delaware* +16.75
Florida International +16.75
Arizona +16.25
Ole Miss +13.25
UTSA +13.25
Washington State* +13.00
Notre Dame +11.25
New Mexico +10.50
Michigan State +10.00
Middle Tennessee +10.00
LA Tech +9.25
TCU +9.75
Texas +8.75
Auburn +8.50
Charlotte +7.75
Army +7.50
Toledo* +7.25.

Away from spread minus (-) past two decisions

Kentucky -28.75
Coastal Carolina -23.00
Purdue -21.75
San Jose State -17.50
UTEP -16.25
Southern Miss* -15.75
Kennesaw State* -15.25
Colorado State -14.75
Oregon State -14.75
Cincinnati -13.75
Mississippi State -13.75
Baylor -13.50
Oklahoma* -12.75
Wyoming -12.50
UCLA -10.75
UNLV* -9.75
Utah -9.50
LSU -9.25
Texas A&M* -9.25
Marshall -8.75
Memphis* -8.75
Northern Illinois -8.75
Kansas -8.50
Arkansas -8.00
West Virginia -8.00

Shade/fade alert

Bowl games have often had their own characteristics separate from the regular season, as momentum, one way or another, has been known not to carry into the bowls, especially nowadays with various key players opting out of postseason action. Nonetheless, there are a few worth noting as we wrap up the "Shade/Fade" for 2025.

Arizona

The similarities between this season and the 2023 campaign in Tucson are worth noting. The Wildcats were roaring down the stretch and playing well enough that they probably could have competed in any playoff situation, if given the chance. In both years, leading the charge for was QB Noah Fifita, who burst upon the scene like gangbusters two years ago before slipping last season, perhaps a result of HC Jeff Fisch having moved to Washington and an adjustment phase to the Brent Brennan regime that took a lot longer than most envisioned.

This fall, however, Fifita has looked much as he did two years ago, passing for nearly 3,000 yards with 26 TD passes and only five picks, while running for another three scores. Best of all for the Cats, he's reportedly going to play in UA's upcoming bowl against SMU. Like in 2023, Arizona roared down the stretch, finishing with the same 9-3 SU record, and if not for two bitter October losses vs. BYU (in OT) and by three points at Houston, both games the Cats could have won, UA would have gotten a shot at Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game (and, we dare say, fared better than BYU).

Next game: Holiday Bowl vs. SMU, Jan. 2

Lean: Shade

Cincinnati

Into Halloween, several were projecting Scott Satterfield's Bearcats as a potential playoff entrant, as seven straight wins had thrust them to the top of the Big 12 table. However, the Bearcats never seemed to recover from a vicious 45-14 beatdown administered by Utah at Salt Lake City on Nov. 1. Cincy couldn't regain its balance, losing three more to end the season on a decided down note, and meekly surrendering at Fort Worth against TCU in the finale as the Horned Frogs ran away to a 45-23 romp. The defense, which gave hints of buckling a few weeks earlier when the Utes rolled to their 31-point win, almost completely disappeared at Amon Carter Stadium as TCU frolicked en route to 544 yards. Momentum completely lost, but still bowl eligible from the midseason win streak, a now 7-5 Cincy accepted an invite the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, but just who will be available is creating a dilemma for Satterfield.

QB Brendan Sorsby won't play in Memphis after announcing intentions to enter the portal (already rumored for other Big 12 destinations, champ Texas Tech among them). Senior Brady Lichtenberg is expected to start while top rusher Tawee Walker has also reportedly opted out to prep for the NFL Draft, and the roster situation is considered quite fluid as more portal defections are likely before the bowl date. Considering the Bearcats will be facing a 10-2 Navy side that will likely have no portal defections and a senior QB ending his decorated career, Cincy can maybe look forward to some good BBQ at the Rendezvous, but little else in Memphis.

Next game: Liberty Bowl vs. Navy, Jan. 2

Lean: Fade

Coastal Carolina

Leave it to the Sun Belt for providing reminders about how bloated the current bowl system has become; perhaps no side reflects that more than App State, which at 5-7 was given a call by J-Lab Birmingham Bowl reps for a default invite to its bowl game because there were no other 6-6 teams available. Another 5-7 team (Mississippi State) had been chosen for the Duke's Mayo Bowl against Wake Forest. Neither App nor Clay Helton's Statesboro Eagles, however, look as dubious a bowl participant as the Chanticleers, who were so enamored with HC Tim Beck getting them to 6-6 and bowl-eligible for a third straight season that he was dismissed on Nov. 30.

Missouri State's Ryan Beard was eventually hired as the replacement; DC Jeremiah Johnson will be the interim HC for the bowl game. Which Chants will be available for the bowl remains in flux, as a handful have already declared for the portal and more likely to follow. It's also unclear if QB Samari Collier, will be available for the bowl after missing the final two regular-season games with a leg injury, and now apparently asking the NCAA for a waiver to receive one more year of eligibility. Without Collier, who spearheaded a four-game win streak into November, Coastal lost its last two games while allowing 50+ points in each (a 51-7 loss to South Carolina and a 59-10 loss to James Madison) with QB Tad Hudson unable to move the offense, mirroring some severe offensive issues in September before Collier emerged. Note that Independence Bowl foe LA Tech, whose QB Blake Baker went down with a knee injury in November, rallied down the stretch behind backup QB Trey Kukuk. Given the situation, Coastal looks a very hard sell in Shreveport.

Next game: Independence Bowl vs. Louisiana Tech, Dec. 30

Lean: Fade

Mississippi State

Late-season QB switches are always tricky and while some SEC observers understood HC Jeff Lebby benching starter Blake Shapen before the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss and giving Kamario Taylor a look, it was a risky move. Taylor did inject some life into the Bulldogs with his legs, running for 173 yards, but passing stats were less impressive (just 15-for-31) as MSU lost contact and Ole Miss pulled clear in a 38-19 Rebels win. Shapen has already declared himself out for the Duke's Mayo Bowl against Wake Forest, so MSU goes again with Taylor in Charlotte, but the season jumped the rails in Starkville once SEC play began and the Bulldogs lost seven of eight to close the campaign.

Some efforts were noteworthy, such as forcing Tennessee and Texas into OT at Scott Stadium but by the end of November, the defense had worn down, surrendering 42 points per game across the final three dates. In most conferences, MSU would have likely finished better than 5-7, but it got this invite mostly because normal bowl-eligibles like Notre Dame, Iowa State, and Kansas State decided to sit out the postseason. The Bulldogs had lost all momentum by the time the regular season concluded, are minus the quarterback who started almost the entire season and now face a foe with a potential regional edge playing close to home.

Next game: Duke's Mayo Bowl vs. Wake Forest, Jan. 2

Lean: Fade